Our future as winner is vague and unclear

The experience of World War II shows that for the victors, the end of the war meant that they finally stopped spending huge amounts of money on it and began to rebuild and develop economically, while the defeated countries, which were the last to be affected by the war, got rid of their dictators who had led them into this meat grinder and got a chance for a normal life.

Tony Judt, an English historian, described in his memoirs a rather difficult postwar childhood in England, and Stanisław Lem, whenever he came on a business trip from Poland to the GDR or Germany, was indignant in the shiny bathtubs of expensive hotels, wondering whether they had definitely lost the war. You know about the standard of living of the greatest "victor" of Nazism, the USSR.

And apart from Germany, none of the Axis powers were particularly punished for their aggression and alliance with Hitler. Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, or Croatia. And Japan. Especially Japan.

“Apart from Germany, none of the Axis powers were particularly punished for their aggression and alliance with Hitler. Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, or Croatia. And Japan. Especially Japan.”

Japan is an amazing country in every sense. Yes, they had their own Tokyo Tribunal like the Nuremberg Tribunal and their own external postwar administration by the United States, but it was healing and helpful. Japan was the only country that survived the nuclear bombings, a really terrible and knockout test. By the way, in Hiroshima alone, about 100,000 people died on the day of the explosion, hypothetically the same number as Ukrainians die from all Russian weapons in a year. And then another 200,000 from wounds and radiation. And these were nuclear bombs of the very first generation, much weaker than today. It is not for nothing that smart people are afraid of nuclear war, they are smart.

And this country, without any economic alliances and with a rather complicated geographical landscape, managed to build one of the best economies in the world, not much worse than Germany's. And while Germany was a fairly strong country even before the world wars, Japan was backward, almost feudal and agrarian. And it became a technological and financial titan.

It is quite realistic that for the Russians, losing the war will be a chance to change the country, because the whole world will be interested in its democratization. And the removal from power of Putin, who is obviously spoiling the lives of Russians and pushing them to spoil the lives of other countries. And the democratization of a country with great resources means a rise in living standards. And in another 20 or 30 years, our migrant workers will again go to work in large Russian cities.

“It is quite realistic that for the Russians, losing the war will be a chance to change the country, because the whole world will be interested in its democratization.”

Instead, our future as a winner is vague and unclear, because the entire war was fought on our territory and we will bear 80% of the total damage from this war. Yes, we hope for various support programs, but they will not develop our economy, they are just for keeping our pants on. And investment attractiveness is more of a pink dream than a clear plan. After all, what kind of economic benefit can be expected in a post-war country with low purchasing power, except for sitting on the reconstruction flows?

Perhaps we will simply be accepted into the EU and NATO as compensation for what we have been through. It would be cool.

It is quite realistic that we will return to the model of pre-war Ukraine and those standards of living, but as in the Jewish tale of the goat, the chickens, and the cramped apartment, this may turn out to be a good turn. And we will suddenly discover that we had a fairly normal life by human standards.

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About the author: Volodymyr Hevko, marketer, blogger.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.