Why did Guterres go to Kazan BRICS summit?

Guterres understands that this is the first conflict of this scale in the history of the UN where the UN is not involved in peace negotiations at all. He cannot but realize that Russia is deliberately doing this, demanding Yalta-2 and a new division of the world.  He definitely does not want to become someone who will be said to have buried the UN. That's why he went to Kazan. 

Ukraine's problem is that it cannot, like Israel, declare him persona non grata. But he will be as useless as the Pope's peace initiatives. 

Guterres is not aligned with Putin; he is primarily looking out for his own position, anticipating that the UN will eventually play a role in the negotiations.

What does China want in Kazan?

The BRICS today is a purely declarative structure, it has no economy. It is impossible to have a common global policy because of the contradictions in the goals of the member countries.

The main issue at this summit is talk of creating a financial instrument to replace the dollar based on national currencies. But this is only possible if China transforms itself into a global financial player, an alternative to the dollar. Russia cannot, basically, influence this, because 80-85% of Russia's currency settlements are in yuan (it is difficult to say how much gold is involved). 

As for Ukraine, China will continue to promote its peace plan, pending negotiations with the United States. In fact, the timing of the summit itself-two weeks before the US elections-does not imply any decisions on Ukraine.

India. 

India needs cheap oil and a North-South corridor, which is currently facing serious problems due to the escalating Iran-Israel confrontation. India is playing for the next 20 years and wants to become a global player in the middle of the 21st century. And cheap Russian oil is one of the elements of this strategy. Ukraine does not play a special role in this game for the Indians. 

In general, we can continue analyzing other countries, but this will not change the essence of the summit. Russia's only achievement will be that Putin will demonstrate that he is not in isolation. No other decisions will be made there. And most importantly, the BRICS has no chance of turning into a political or military-political alliance now.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.