Perfect American storm

1. Trump's analysts have suggested making a pre-election breakthrough at Ukraine's expense. In the U.S., there is a battle for the 8% of voters who could change their minds. The primary Republican strategy focuses on two points:

• To divert attention from the narrative of "Russia interfering in the election on Trump's side," especially considering the scandal involving the financing of right-wing bloggers through Russia Today. Currently, Republicans argue that the Democrats have sidelined Zelenskyy to support Kamala Harris against Trump.
• This is occurring alongside Putin's nuclear escalation, timed perfectly with his nuclear threats. Trump’s second narrative is, “This would not have happened under my watch, and only I can stop Putin's nuclear war.” While I'm not promoting a conspiracy theory about Putin and Trump colluding, there is a notable alignment in their messaging. This positions Trump strongly: choose me, and there will be no nuclear war. This thesis is likely to be a significant topic in the final weeks of the election, alongside another Trumpist message suggesting that Israel's existence is threatened under the Democrats.

2. Ukraine finds itself in an extremely difficult situation where it is challenging to align with either party, especially given that it’s tough for the Democrats to engage with Ukraine right now, and there are no influential Republicans willing to listen to Ukrainians. This scenario will have significant future consequences. Even if Harris wins, we will likely face a Republican Congress. The situation is approaching the "Kolchuga scandal" in its intensity, and the only thing that can be advised here is two things:

• The worst thing in politics is to take offense without having a trump card. If we adopt the position of the offended, we have already lost.
• Russia is likely to exploit the internal divisions within Ukraine, especially since all political actors in Ukraine are already showing signs of discord.

3. In another part of the world, Saudi Arabia has effectively decided to withdraw from the OPEC+ deal, now prioritizing maintaining its market share rather than keeping prices low (notably, Russians have overtaken them in China). While avoiding the complexities of oil conflicts, two important aspects emerge:

• The cost of Russian oil is approximately $25-27, while their budget faces challenges if prices drop to $42-44. Therefore, the current decline to $65-67 is not critical for Russia; as long as oil hovers around $60, Putin has sufficient revenue.
• The Saudis' withdrawal from the deal frees up Russia's hands in Iran and Yemen, posing direct and indirect threats to Ukraine. This could lead to increased arms supplies and a potential shift in U.S. focus towards resolving the Middle East conflict. Russia has been seeking a "Syria-2" scenario to compel the West to negotiate. The core of their strategy is that they do not merely want to sell the situation in Ukraine; instead, they aim to position themselves as guarantors against escalations from countries like North Korea and Iran, thereby enhancing their bargaining power with the West.

These elements form a perfect storm that is already underway. Standing proudly against the wind almost guarantees disaster, particularly as Ukraine begins to actively engage in its domestic policy.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.