On the US’ ambivalent perception of the Ukrainian counteroffensive’s prospects

General Milley's interview with the Voice of America perfectly demonstrates the strength, weakness, and contradictions of the US position in the Ukrainian-Russian confrontation.

On the one hand, Ukrainian troops are "ready" for both offense and defense. The United States has fulfilled Ukraine's request for appropriate assistance, although it is still unclear "what will come of it."

On the other hand, it is unlikely that the parties will be able to achieve their political goals militarily this year. (OP: of course, because the US measures its aid to Ukraine with this goal in mind!)

And the cherry on top: "if Putin is rational" (sic!!), he "must" negotiate sooner or later, because he will see that "the costs exceed the benefits."

So it is that General Milley measures Putin's actions by the standards of American rationality.

“It is unlikely that General Milley will believe that Putin - with all his miscalculations, including false information from his own subservient subordinates - is completely rational in the main regard: understanding that a loss to Ukraine will not only be a loss of war for Russia (as in Afghanistan), but also the beginning of the next stage of dismantling this empire”

It is unlikely that General Milley will believe that Putin - with all his miscalculations, including false information from his own subservient subordinates - is completely rational in the main regard: understanding that a loss to Ukraine will not only be a loss of war for Russia (as in Afghanistan), but also the beginning of the next stage of dismantling this empire. And for Putin himself, it would be the immediate end of his power, and most likely his life. From this point of view, there are no "benefits" from ending the war through negotiations that would outweigh such expected losses. Unless the outcome of the negotiations is such that Russian society can sell it not even as a "draw," but quite clearly as a "victory." But this will definitely not be accepted by Ukrainian society. There will be no win-win here, and there will be no "painful compromise" when "each side has to give up something."

But it is extremely difficult to fit this simple assessment of the situation into the templates of American rationality. We still have to break this rock.

Source

About the author. Oleksii Panych, philosopher, member of the Ukrainian Center of PEN International, blogger.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.