Oil noose for the Russian budget

The previous restrictions on oil are working great. The average discount on Russian oil has remained at 40% and is not decreasing, despite all of Russia's efforts to circumvent the ban. It will be even more difficult to circumvent the restrictions on oil products, as they are not transported by supertankers. Europe did not freeze, neither did we. There, by the way, the level of gas reserves in storage facilities at the beginning of February was 76% compared to 41% last year. As they say, feel the difference.

“Europe did not freeze, neither did we. There, by the way, the level of gas reserves in storage facilities at the beginning of February was 76% compared to 41% last year”

But the main indicator of Russia's problems is the Russian budget itself. In January, its expenditures increased by 2/3 compared to last year, which, incidentally, is an indicator of how much the war is costing Russia. But revenues fell by almost 3 times.

“The main indicator of Russia's problems is the Russian budget itself. In January, its expenditures increased by 2/3 compared to last year, which, incidentally, is an indicator of how much the war is costing Russia”

This trend has been going on for 2 months now and is directly related to the embargo on Russian oil and the ceiling on it. Civilized countries no longer buy oil or Russian petroleum products, while everyone else is subject to restrictions. The Kremlin is facing a real and tangible threat of macroeconomic destabilization.

I have seen various estimates of the Russian regime's losses depending on oil price fluctuations: from USD 75 to USD 125 billion a year. And this is very steep. The main result is that Moscow is forced to play by the "red flags" set by the West. Russia remains a supplier, but ceases to be a player. More to come.

Source

About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs