Nuclear weapons in Belarus. Putin's latest attempt at raising the stakes?

1. Putin is de facto going all-in. He is going for direct nuclear blackmail, though, as always, the devil is in the details.

2. He is not handing over weapons to Lukashenko, but is only building a storage facility in Belarus. Simply put, under the guise of a "unified state," he is building his nuclear military base in Belarus (this is how he will reject the argument that Belarusians are violating the nonproliferation treaty). Importantly, this narrows the field of maneuver for Lukashenko, who has begun to play the servant of two masters with Moscow and Beijing.

3. Putin has clearly named the date of commissioning of this facility - June 2023. In other words, the construction has already begun, but now he is telling the whole world: you have until June, and then there is uncertainty.

4. What is behind this uncertainty? I am deeply convinced that nothing. This is another raising of the stakes to make the world scared and sit down with Putin at the negotiating table.

“What is behind this uncertainty? I am deeply convinced that nothing. This is another raising of the stakes to make the world scared and sit down with Putin at the negotiating table”

De facto, this is almost the last round of Putin's raising of the stakes. He is counting on the world to get scared. If not, he will simply have no trump cards. That is why the main task of our diplomacy is to prevent our partners from being frightened.

We should also pay attention to the "Chinese trace" in this story.

Beijing is definitely not interested in any nuclear strike. After this statement, Beijing's role in resolving this issue is only growing. Whether consciously or not, Putin is belittling Moscow's role in the international game, acting as the "great Kim" and forcing Beijing to mediate in this big and primitive game.

Putin is pushing the Western world not so much to talk to him as to talk to Xi Jinping.

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.