Offensive in Kharkiv region is first step in Russia's large-scale offensive. Column by Serhiy Zgurets

Ukraine's Armed Forces attack Belbek military airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea

On the night of May 15, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted another attack on the Belbek airfield of the Russian occupation forces in the temporarily occupied Crimea. There is no official information about the damage yet, but photos of the damaged air defense systems have already appeared online. Earlier, satellite images were also released that showed a large deployment of Russian aircraft. Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the airfield with ATACMS missiles. It's worth noting that these missiles are quite effective, so we hope that the new fund announced today by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will help increase Ukraine's arsenal. In particular, it is a question of allocating $2 billion. These funds can be used to support our defense industry, as well as to purchase those types of weapons that are desperately needed by the Armed Forces.

The US plans to transfer an additional battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine

Also, during Antony Blinken's visit to Kyiv, the issue of supplying Patriot air defense systems was raised. Blinken did not confirm this information, but he did not deny it either. However, foreign media have reported that the United States is considering the possibility of supplying Ukraine with another Patriot battery. This is extremely important today. Yesterday, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Kharkiv needs two additional Patriot batteries to protect it from enemy attacks. As the occupiers are trying to turn Kharkiv into Aleppo, using various means of air strikes.

The situation in Kharkiv region remains extremely difficult

This morning, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff reported that the situation in the Kharkiv region is sufficiently stabilized. Later, they reported that Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled the Russian invaders' offensive in the area of Vovchansk. In particular, defensive actions continue in the northern and northwestern parts of Vovchansk. We know that the Russians are trying to put pressure on Ukrainian positions from the front and to the west. However, despite the statements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, we understand that the situation in the Kharkiv region remains extremely difficult.

The situation is constantly analyzed by foreign experts. In particular, the British think tank RUSI has made an interesting report entitled “Russia is beginning to accumulate advantages in the war with Ukraine”. The report is quite interesting and rational. In particular, analysts report that the Russian attack in the Kharkiv region is the first stage of a major Russian offensive. Now Russia continues to use different approaches in order to have different approaches on the battlefield. Analysts also say that there will be an offensive towards Kharkiv, which will force Ukraine to bring in more of the city's reserves. Then Russia will put pressure on the south of Ukraine to reverse Ukraine's gains in the summer counteroffensive of 2023. Next, the Russians plan to act on a large scale in eastern Ukraine. It is not yet known whether this is how events will unfold, as this is only an assumption by British experts. It is worth noting that the Russians do not have the forces and means for such a large-scale offensive.

Russian offensive in Kharkiv region aims to create preconditions for successful actions in eastern Ukraine

Mykhailo Samus, military expert, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, expert of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, believes that Russians plan their actions based on their assessments of the situation in Ukraine. In particular, they believe that Ukraine does not have enough reserves and weapons to confront their army along the entire front line. Also, according to Samus, the occupiers are planning their operations against the backdrop of the fact that since October 2023 they have not been able to achieve their goals in eastern Ukraine. In particular, to completely capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions. That is why Russia may resort to stretching the front line to achieve results in eastern Ukraine. If the Russian occupation army were to capture Vovchansk and continue to advance, it would force the Ukrainian command to move significant reserves to this area, including from the east. Such a move would allow Russia to intensify its actions in Donbas.

 Samus believes that the main goal of the Russian attack in Kharkiv and other areas is to undermine the Ukrainian defense and create a favorable situation where the Ukrainian Armed Forces will really lack reserves. Fortunately, the Russians have not been able to realize their plan in the Kharkiv region, so there is speculation that they will try to attack in the Sumy region. However, even in this scenario, the Russians do not have enough forces and means to conduct large-scale offensives. If we talk about the total number of occupation troops on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy regions, we are talking about 50-60 thousand troops. In addition, Russia also has problems with resources for the war. That's why they started to conduct personnel rotations in the Ministry of Defense.

Putin dismisses Shoigu from the post of Russian Defense Minister

Mykhailo Samus also commented on the dismissal of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to him, this step is quite logical for Russians, as Shoigu has long been associated with corruption in the Russian army. He became defense minister in 2012, when Anatoly Serdyukov was carrying out pragmatic reforms in the army, which focused on the best standards in the world. Ironically, at the time, Russia was ahead of Ukraine in adopting NATO standards. The Russian military did not like this, and Anatoly Serdyukov was dismissed. When Sergei Shoigu became the head of the Russian Defense Ministry, a whole generals' mafia was formed. It was then, in 2012, that the program of rearmament of the Russian Federation was approved with a rather huge budget. In particular, at today's exchange rate, it is more than $1 trillion. However, all these funds have disappeared, and no advanced weapons have appeared. The situation has not changed for them today. Therefore, formally, the idea of replacing Shoigu is to have an economist as minister who can understand the activities of the Defense Ministry and optimize its work.

However, as Samus noted, everything in Russia is done through corruption. Russia even sells oil through a black tanker fleet and corruption schemes. Even the fact that Russia receives electronics and components bypassing sanctions confirms the high level of corruption schemes. Such a system has been formed in Russia for 12 years. Therefore, according to Samus, the new team will not be able to immediately optimize the work of the Ministry of Defense and the Russian military-industrial complex. This will only lead to the opposite effect. In particular, all processes will stop. Any procurement contracts will not be fulfilled on time. Especially if they affect someone's interests. Accordingly, as Samus predicted, in the medium term, this could have a negative impact on the defense capability of the Russian army.