Russian troops disguise drones as Ukrainian, escalating tensions in Vuhledar. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Russian troops camouflage their drones as Ukrainian ones 

Let’s begin with a video released yesterday by the Serhiy Sternenko community, which is actively promoting the Sky Rusoriz project. The video highlights Russia's efforts to protect its reconnaissance drones, which had previously operated with a sense of security in the skies. This changed when the Ukrainian Armed Forces introduced effective countermeasures—namely, Ukrainian anti-aircraft FPV drones capable of targeting and destroying Zala, Superkam, and even Lancet drones.

Russian troops have begun employing unconventional methods of defense. This includes not just the installation of rear-view cameras on their drones—allowing them to monitor attacks from Ukrainian drones—but also attempts to disguise their UAVs as Ukrainian ones. The video reveals that Russian drones are now adorned with blue and yellow insignia on their wings, presumably to deceive Ukrainian operators into thinking they are friendly. However, this tactic has proven ineffective, resulting in these Russian drones being shot down. Consequently, Ukraine has reported hundreds of destroyed Russian reconnaissance drones, showcasing its technical capabilities, innovative teams, and effective asymmetric strategies that successfully blind Russia's eyes in the sky.

Vuhledar situation

At the same time, on the ground, Russian troops are trying to take advantage of their superiority in manpower and equipment. Much attention is now focused on the situation around Vuhledar. A number of experts consider the situation to be critical and believe that we should withdraw from this area. They even write that Ukraine's 72nd Brigade has already begun to relocate. But again, these are assumptions and conclusions of journalists. The Ukrainian General Staff provided rather restrained information about this area. It says that four Russian assaults near Vuhledar and Vodiane were repelled in the Vremivka direction, four more assaults are ongoing, and the General Staff is putting an end to this for now. 

                                                                          Photo: Espreso map of hostilities for September 18-25

What do we know? The 72nd Brigade has been effectively defending the Vuhledar sector of the frontline for the past three years. Positioned on a hill, Vuhledar offers a vantage point to monitor enemy movements from a distance, while the Kashlahach River, which flows just to the south, complicates any Russian advances. However, some time ago, the Russians altered their tactics, initiating bypass attacks, targeting two mines near Vuhledar, and there have been reports of advances by Russian reconnaissance groups in the eastern part of the town. Simultaneously, two Russian brigades—a marine brigade and a tank brigade—have crossed the Kashlahach River, posing a significant threat to Vuhledar from the west.

The current situation reveals an invasion of reconnaissance groups into Vuhledar from the east, yet the town continues to resist, despite facing significant challenges. Russian forces are impacting the logistics of Ukrainian troops, complicating the defense. However, it's worth recalling the situations in Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, where widespread predictions of imminent Russian capture did not materialize. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the decisions made by the Ukrainian General Staff and the reserves available in the region. Nevertheless, it is crucial to note that the defense of Vuhledar is nearing a critical juncture, with the choice between holding the area at all costs or prioritizing personnel safety becoming increasingly significant.

But, once again, there has never been a single area that Ukrainian troops have surrendered without a fight, without extraordinary Russian losses, and I think it will be the same now. Indeed, there are risks in the future in this area. If Ukrainian troops are captured or pushed out of Vuhledar, Russian forces will try to continue to move north and thus level the front line from Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar. We know this story theoretically, the question is how Ukrainian Armed Forces and Russian forces will act. Because in any case, everything depends on the ratio of forces and means and the ability to exploit the enemy's weaknesses, and in any case, this will affect the further dynamics on this front line.

Zelenskyy's victory plan

The quantity of weapons, ammunition, and artillery has been, and remains, crucial to the situation. Currently, President of Ukraine is in the United States, where he is urging Ukraine's partners to provide maximum assistance in implementing the Victory Plan, which outlines several key points. The response from Ukraine's partners to this plan will significantly influence the future dynamics on the front lines.

Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, has forecasted the reaction of Ukraine's partners, particularly from the American side, regarding these proposals and Ukraine's requests.

“In my view, of the five points announced so far, the most critical one is the use of long-range strikes on Russian territory—not just long-range, but at operational depth. This includes acquiring AGM-158 missiles for the F-16 and obtaining permission to use these missiles, which have a range of 370 kilometers in their basic version, as well as other missiles like the French Scalp or the British Storm Shadow. Additionally, we are interested in acquiring ATACMS tactical missile systems. However, it's important to differentiate between these systems. I believe there is a significant chance of securing permission for British and French cruise missiles at this time,” he stated.

The military expert believes that, at least for now, the U.S. will not authorize the provision of tactical ballistic missiles.

“Based on my understanding of how U.S. assistance is allocated, I anticipate that it will be implemented quite gradually. However, I believe that if Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, there will be significantly greater chances of obtaining all these permits and missiles by the end of the year. Regarding other points, such as sanctions and the Kursk operation, they are already in place and continue to be enforced. The key indicator for me was the G7's refusal in May 2023 to consider a ban on exports to Russia. I realized then that substantial changes would be slow to materialize, leading to only minor bans, perhaps concerning certain non-ferrous metals or other commodities. Even with oil, Putin is still likely to receive up to $20 billion annually, and there remain many avenues for revenue,” Valentyn Badrak noted.

He also commented on the accelerated procedure for Ukraine's accession to NATO.

“In general, I believe this clause was initially included with the intention of rejecting it later to focus on more realistic provisions. While this may not be entirely accurate, I am uncertain about the current capabilities of the NATO bloc, especially given the intense pressure and, I would say, the daring blackmail tactics employed by Putin, which seem to be accepted. This situation is quite intriguing,” the expert remarked.

The Russian War Against Ukraine: How to Break the 400-Year Vicious Circle

I would like to extend my congratulations to Valentyn Badrak and Volodymyr Horbulin on the publication of their book, The Russian War Against Ukraine: How to Break the 400-Year Vicious Circle. The foreword was written by General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

“Indeed, there is a foreword by Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and the fact that this legendary commander agreed to contribute is quite noteworthy. I believe this is because, from the very start of his command, General Zaluzhnyi has emphasized the importance of advanced technologies, the technologization of the army, and the establishment of a system for technology development. This aligns with the work of Volodymyr Horbulin, who published his book How to Defeat Russia in the War of the Future back in the 20th century, which prominently highlighted the focus on technology. Interestingly, much of the current conflict can be traced to the scenarios laid out in that book, which was recognized as the book of the year in Ukraine. Our second book with Volodymyr Horbulin, which we are discussing now, further underscores a significant phenomenon: inexpensive, mass-produced weapons have the capacity to neutralize high-quality, expensive weaponry,” stated the director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.

He noted that there are certain emphases on how to build a system of technology development.

“Of course, we describe everything in more detail there, how and what. We already have it (the system of technology development - ed.) seemingly formed spontaneously. Several agencies are involved: the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, the State Special Communications Service, and the Ministry of Strategy and Industry. But this system needs to be improved. The interview with Minister Umerov that I read the other day, as well as what the Fakty outlet wrote about the non-fulfillment of procurement contracts, shows that there are many shortcomings and these shortcomings are interrelated. The biggest drawback is resources, because without resources, nothing will happen. And here the recipe is very simple: to review and revise the state priorities in general, because the victory and survival of the nation should be at the center of our society, and should be a unifying factor for the whole society,” believes Valentyn Badrak.

In his opinion, ambitious projects should be abandoned for a while.

“Starting with infrastructure development, including road construction and the restoration of cities, towns, and various facilities, I would recommend even putting the telethon on hold for the time being. We need to concentrate all resources on a unified war goal, which we currently lack, and this is critically important. We require a control system, a single agency to oversee this effort. I believe the Ministry of Defense should assume responsibility for developing priorities, advancing technologies, and ensuring effective oversight. According to Minister Umerov, we currently have 200 contracts that are either unfulfilled or at risk, totaling 161 billion hryvnias, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces have already missed out on nearly 50 billion hryvnias. Moreover, some contracts, amounting to an additional 28 billion hryvnias, are unlikely to be completed at all,” the military expert stated.

Valentyn Badrak emphasized that the control system should be extremely powerful.

“The entry system should operate through a single door, and I believe that should be the Defense Procurement Agency, or the unified agency that Minister Umerov intends to establish. However, during the transition period, special exporters should remain active. I disagree with the minister on this point; these entities cannot be dismantled, as they represent significant Ukrainian assets. Instead, they should be transformed, similar to Ukroboronservice, which has demonstrated that it is possible to operate successfully as a production and service system. This approach could also enable special exporters to evolve into investment companies. To eliminate entities like Ukrspetsexport, which has been around since 1996, or Progres and Ukroboronservice, both of which date back to 1991, would be reckless and cannot be justified,” he stated.

The director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies also explained why Ukraine has problems with mines.

“Because when signing the contracts, the Ministry of Defense did not consider that there could be problems with the components, so it should be about ensuring a full cycle. And the technology development system must ensure full cycles for the most important weapons programs of Ukraine: missiles, drones, and, of course, ammunition. When I say drones and missiles, of course, the only thing that can be imported is some microelectronics elements, because, unfortunately, over a long period of time, when Ukraine did not pay attention to its defense, microelectronics was virtually destroyed. It is now at zero, and it will take at least three decades to revive this industry. Of course, this should be done gradually, but a realistic approach is to close the cycles of the most important weapons: missiles, drones and ammunition,” the military expert emphasized.

During this war, Ukraine has already demonstrated enormous capabilities, Valentyn Badrak is convinced.

“I'll give you just one example: Bohdana self-propelled artillery system. Ukraine has never produced self-propelled artillery systems, and now we have produced as many as 9 self-propelled artillery systems in a month. This is a record that surpasses even the French NEXTER, which produces French CAESAR self-propelled artillery systems, with 6-8 of them, and we have produced 18 self-propelled artillery systems in two months, with Danish money. And this is a very impressive record, which demonstrates that we have a very large, very significant potential,” he said.