Russian army slows down attacks around Avdiivka, resuming offensive on Chasiv Yar – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

On April 30, for the first time in several days, Russian troops did not carry out any confirmed offensives near Avdiivka, while Ukrainian sources reported that Russian troops carried out several more attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar area than near Avdiivka.  

Morning and evening reports from the Ukrainian General Staff on April 30 indicated that, in total, Ukrainian troops repelled 47 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction and 57 Russian attacks in the Bakhmut direction over the day, with significantly more attacks in the Chasiv Yar area.

One day's worth of reports is not enough to establish a pattern, but it may indicate that Russian forces are slowing down the pace of attacks around Avdiivka while resuming offensives around Chasiv Yar, as ISW predicted. 

Since around April 20, Russian forces have focused on building tactical gains near Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), but as of April 30, the pace of confirmed advances appears to have slowed. 

Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces had advanced west of Semenivka and Berdychi (both northwest of Avdiivka). However, ISW found no evidence for any of these claims. 

The Institute says that Russian forces may decide to advance from their position north of Avdiivka toward Toretsk to complement Russian offensives near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to pause tactically to concentrate forces for such an offensive.  

ISW notes that Chasiv Yar is an operationally significant objective, as it would serve as a springboard for Russian forces to launch an offensive against Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, which form the fortress belt of the four major cities in the Donetsk region. However, Russian forces will likely need a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretyne area if they decide to try to push north toward Toretsk.

• Toomas Väli, deputy head of the operational department of the Estonian Defense Forces General Staff, expressed his belief that the Russians will not succeed in capturing the town of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, by May 9.