Mobilization and Russian offensive: how propaganda works, what prospects Ukraine has. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Patriot SAM transfer to Ukraine

The increased threats to Ukraine from the use of anti-aircraft missiles and other means of destruction, and the increase in Russian ballistics have increased the urgency of the search for air defense systems. If Patriot is in the first place, then there are at least 11 countries that have significant stocks of these systems, including the United States with as many as 80 batteries, we have three batteries, Germany with 12 batteries, Poland with 4, and Romania with 7. In any case, most likely, we will have to turn to the United States or Germany itself. We will see what decision will be made in the end. 

There are also questions regarding missiles, as there are certain nuances involved at the moment. Figuratively speaking, Japan manufactures and supplies Patriot missiles to the United States, and then they repackage these missiles for us. This dynamic is associated with the use of the Patriot system.

Introducing new technologies at the frontline

We have become accustomed to the use of aerial and maritime drones by our Armed Forces and Defense Forces against the enemy, but there are increasingly interesting and illustrative examples associated with the successful use of ground robotic systems.

There are two interesting video confirmations. The first is from the 63rd separate mechanized brigade in the Lyman direction. It shows how a Dynamo drone delivers mines to the Russian position and then remotely detonates them, which is a complete surprise for the Russian troops. It is clear that such a mission would be difficult and dangerous to accomplish on the ground with the help of people. We see that such things are already being done with a ground drone and quite successfully. The 63rd Brigade said that they have carried out such missions many times before.

The second example is from a different area - Bakhmut. They showed the use of a Ratel S kamikaze robot near a bridge used by the Russian troops. So we see that the technological direction in the Ukrainian army is becoming more and more relevant.

Dynamics on the front line

Yesterday there was a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, after which Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had met with all military leaders. Among other things, a report was made by Oleksandr Syrskyi on mobilization in certain areas of the front line. We understand that the issue of stabilizing the frontline is something that the Ukrainian army is doing in extremely difficult conditions, but the president says that the invading Russian army is being held back.

When we talk about Ivanivske, I'll remind you that this direction remains the most challenging at the moment, where the Russians seek to continue offensive actions. Yesterday, such attacks continued.

                                                                                                       A map of hostilities: Bakhmut direction

Regarding the situation west of Avdiivka, near Novomykhailivka and Lyman, Mykhailo Samus, Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, said: "If we talk about the operational situation, the Russians are actually acting quite unconventionally, not in the way we expected after such a grueling winter campaign when the Russians suffered huge losses. There was an expectation that they would stop and make a certain operational pause in order to withdraw their exhausted troops, regroup and restore, perhaps put newly created units into action, but this did not happen. I can explain this situation to myself by the fact that the Russians continue to advance by inertia, and they are really exhausted, and now they need to introduce operational reserves in some areas, and even strategic ones in some. Moreover, they are throwing in unprepared troops, which means that they are trying to maintain this offensive inertia at all costs, at any cost, with any resources."

                                                                                                    A map of the hostilities: Kreminna-Lyman

A military expert believes that at the strategic level in the Kremlin, a decision has been made regarding a window of opportunity when Ukraine lacks artillery ammunition and other military supplies needed for defense.

                                                                                                           A map of hostilities: Avdiivka sector

"If we forecast and plan for the years 2024-2025, then now is the best moment to take advantage of the turbulence in the United States to continue the offensive because predicting what will happen in the second half of 2024 for the Russians is difficult, and even more so in 2025 - no one can predict what will happen there. That's why on all possible fronts - both in Robotyne, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar - they are trying to move forward and break through the Ukrainian defense," explains an expert from the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies.

                                                                                                                   A map of hostilities: Robotyne

                                                                                              A map of hostilities: Krasnohorivka - Vuhledar

Russian army replenishment with new recruits

Then the statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 personnel starting June 1 fits into this concept quite logically. But this does not quite fit into Russian realities, because in fact, the Russians have now announced a draft, and last time it was the case that they postponed this draft in order to conduct mobilization. Now, if the information is correct, the Russians may have some problems with these measures.

Samus also recalled the statement of Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov about the alleged 16,000 people who wanted to sign a contract with the Federal Agency for State Property Management: "Officially, Russian propaganda is trying to tie this to the fact that: "You see, Ukraine blew up the Crocus," because they consider Ukrainians to be the main customers of this terrorist attack. - And the Russians rushed to sign contracts."

At the same time, there is very interesting news in several regions of Russia, such as the Krasnodar Territory and Rostov Region, where they are raising the one-time payment upon signing a contract from 750 thousand rubles to a million, which is about 10 thousand euros.

"You can imagine if such payments are made in depressed areas of Russia, where such money could not even be dreamed of, mostly alcoholics, I think it would not be a problem to raise 100 or 200 thousand. Especially since it's simple arithmetic: 10,000 euros for 100,000 soldiers is only a billion euros. For Russia, a billion euros is an absolutely staggering amount. They earn tens, hundreds of billions of euros from oil sales," said the director of the New Geopolitics Research Network.

According to Samus, there is no question of quality training for recruits: "Most experts believe that the new divisions will be ready in Russia around the end of the fall and possibly by the end of the year, and quickly - May-June to create some human resources. I think this approach with the increase in the first payment will make it possible to recruit 100,000 and 200,000 quite easily."

Propaganda work on the offensive

The expert noted that the constant fake news about an attack on Kharkiv puts pressure not only on the international community but also on Ukrainian society. The constant shelling of civilian infrastructure reinforces this.

"The logic there is: if they are hitting Kharkiv, it means they are preparing something, it means they will conduct an offensive. Moreover, this is confirmed later by propaganda, and then in the political realm and throughout the informational, political space of Europe, the United States: Ukraine has a deficit in the military, while the Russians do not, they are preparing for a new offensive; the States cannot make a decision to help in any way, one can conclude that the front may collapse. In reality, this is only an assumption, and of course, we are talking about the fact that the Russians actually do not even have the opportunity to conduct an operation now, they are acting at a tactical level, trying to take one street on different fronts, then another street through offensives," explained an expert from the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies.

The enemy is not testing the front with small advances for no reason; in this way, they are seeking weak points to break through. However, this does not allow for advancement on the Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Vuhledar fronts, according to Samus.

Expectations about the war in Ukraine

"The main thing is that Europe has finally woken up. Europe talks about strategic autonomy, and the idea of the NATO Secretary-General about a $100 billion Fund to aid Ukraine has emerged. Of course, this will be a difficult issue; for example, if it goes through the NATO procedure, it could be endlessly debated there, because figures like Orban or Fico will be against it," concluded Samus.

The director of the New Geopolitics Research Network shared his expectations for the coming months: “After all, if we receive F-16s with a sufficient range of armament if we have the opportunity to accumulate certain long-range resources, then we can talk about surprises on the front. Still, I remain hopeful that the Ukrainian command will manage to surprise the enemy on some fronts. But, of course, Donbas needs to be cemented, building fortification lines, and trying to stabilize the front as much as possible without allowing the Russians to break through.”