Don't underestimate Ukraine's Armed Forces: Assad has fled to Moscow

There is nothing extraordinary about Bashar al-Assad's fate that could be considered a phenomenon. It serves as a reminder—echoed today by Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs—that any dictator relying on Moscow's support will sooner or later face Kremlin betrayal. This is because Moscow is prone to shifting its priorities in aggression, losing interest in the regimes it once backed just a few years before embarking on its next campaign.

"I wouldn't say that Putin doesn't care about Assad's fate. Not at all. It's just that the Russian leader lacks the physical capability to help the Syrian dictator remain in power amidst the decisive advance of the opposition."

One should not underestimate the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They have not only drawn Russian resources away but have significantly depleted them. This has left Russia unable to adequately respond to events unfolding in various corners of the world.

I believe the fall of the Syrian regime, with Russia powerless to assist Assad, is just the beginning of the diminishing Russian influence in countries where it once sought to maintain control and oppose the West. Syria, as is well known, served as a hub for criminals of various levels, who were dispatched from Russian military bases to African or Asian countries to support dictatorial regimes and enrich Putin's own regime. Now, this is effectively coming to an end.

Russia is soon likely to lose its sole base providing access to the sea, enabling Moscow to deploy its mercenaries to the Middle East and African nations. Russian troops are surrounded by Syrian rebels, forcing the Russian Foreign Ministry to negotiate with opposition representatives to secure the safe withdrawal of its military personnel for continued operations elsewhere.

"It is easy to imagine the fear among these so-called diplomats, who are, in reality, operatives of the Russian Federal Security Service, that they might share the fate of their Iranian counterparts, whose embassy was stormed by the Syrian people today."

As for Bashar al-Assad, the full extent of his crimes, and those of his notorious father, during their decades-long rule in Syria, will eventually come to light. Syrian prisons will be opened, releasing individuals who have been isolated for decades—beaten, tortured, denied basic rights—who will testify about the murders of their comrades. The archives of Syrian security services will be unveiled, exposing criminal orders issued by Assad and the involvement of his allies like Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei.

Former officials of the criminal Ba'ath Party and Syrian government will begin to testify about their former master. Through their accounts, they will aim to secure a place in post-Assad political life or at least gain freedom. Assad will quickly transition from a former dictator to a wanted war criminal, with his crimes documented and proven.

For the Putin regime, this means little. Assad will not be the first criminal they shelter from the rightful retribution of their own people. However, Assad should remember that he is not an untouchable figure, and the Russian regime itself is not eternal. The first act of a new Russian government after Vladimir Putin could well be handing Assad over to Damascus for a fair trial, and nothing will save him.

Assad should reflect on the fate of Erich Honecker, the former East German leader who ordered his own citizens shot as they tried to flee his socialist "utopia." After East Germany's collapse, Honecker fled to Moscow with his wife, but as power shifted in the Soviet Union, he was handed over to Germany for a fair trial for his crimes.

As for Bashar al-Assad’s crimes… I believe the former Syrian dictator is well aware that their brutality and treachery cannot even be compared to the crimes of Erich Honecker. So, I do not think the political asylum Bashar al-Assad and his family received in Russia today will be his final destination.

I hope that Bashar al-Assad’s final destination will be a prison in Syria. The very same prison where he tortured political opponents. The very same prison where his security officers gave free rein to their animalistic instincts. The very same prison where he will face a just verdict for all the crimes he committed during his tenure as President of the Syrian Arab Republic.

And now, no one can guarantee Bashar al-Assad that he will not end up in that prison.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.