Lukashenko was looking for a new strong master in Beijing

Because the only possible cooperation would be Lukashenko simply giving up the entire domestic market to China. After all, even Russia has an economy 10 times smaller than China's and is a dubious economic partner (except for being used for getting its various raw materials, from gas to wood, virtually free of charge). And the tiny economy of Belarus is nothing for this level of interstate negotiations.

There is a version that Lukashenko really did bring Xi a message from Putin. But it could well have been done by Putin himself or someone from his entourage. Lukashenko was not needed there. Especially if we assume that we are talking about some kind of closed agreement on the supply of weapons or the provision of some kind of military technology, this should have been negotiated by Shoigu or Mishustin, or Medvedev as the head of the relevant direction. Or Gerasimov. What does the president of Belarus have to do with this, who is still successfully resisting being pushed into the fire of war?

An attempt to turn Belarus into a "gateway to Russia for Chinese weapons" and thus hide the source of supply, because the US has already expressed dissatisfaction and even outlined punishment (a significant restriction on access to the American market)? Hmm... Russia may have expected to fool everyone with the story of "Belarusian shrimp and oysters" that appeared on its shelves and in restaurants after the sanctions were imposed. But to expect to deceive NATO in the event that obviously Chinese weapons, technology, and other things appear "imported Belarus" is not even funny.

“An attempt to turn Belarus into a "gateway to Russia for Chinese weapons" and thus hide the source of supply, because the US has already expressed dissatisfaction and even outlined punishment (a significant restriction on access to the American market)?”

On the contrary, it looks more like Lukashenko's attempt to break free from Russia's embrace. This is entirely consistent with the fact that the Belarusian army has been successfully avoiding direct participation in the war unleashed by the "allied state" for a year now. Still, Lukashenko has been in power for 29 years. He has seen a lot, including Putin's predecessor and the end of the Yeltsin era. And, of course, Lukashenko understands that things are coming to an end: a year, two at most, and Putin's Russia will be history. And Lukashenko wants to jump off the train while it has just begun to fall into the abyss.

“Roughly speaking, it looks like Lukashenko is looking for a new master, another "strong hand." It's not in the West that Lukashenko would be looking for shelter, where he is a nobody, an unrecognized president, a dictator, a terrorist accomplice, etc.”

Roughly speaking, it looks like Lukashenko is looking for a new master, another "strong hand." It's not in the West that Lukashenko would be looking for shelter, where he is a nobody, an unrecognized president, a dictator, a terrorist accomplice, etc. Xi is quite suitable for this: he is just beginning his third term, he will most likely be in power for quite some time (for the time left for 68-year-old Lukashenko, Xi’s rule will be enough for sure), China is a huge country with a powerful economy, and it is interested in a foothold in Europe. Plus, it will not be a problem for Xi to confront Putin, as he is guaranteed not to be happy about such a shameful escape of his vassal.

To summarize my assumption: Lukashenko wants China to become the guarantor that Belarus will not be forced to directly participate in the war against Ukraine. And successful negotiations will mean that no army will invade us from the territory of Belarus.

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About the author: Oleksiy Holobutskyi, political scientist.

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