Kremlin doesn’t have time to significantly increase soldiers’ quantity while war in Ukraine continues - ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

ISW analysts note Russian Defense Minister Shoigu presented changes in Russian defense policy to significantly increase the Russian army size. Shoigu proposed that Russia restore the Moscow and Leningrad military districts and form a new army corps and 17 new maneuver divisions.

He also proposed that Russia form a new army corps in Karelia, two new air assault divisions, three new motorized rifle divisions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and expand the seven existing brigades of the Northern Fleet and the Western, Central and Eastern military districts into seven new motorized rifle divisions, while expanding the five existing marine brigades into five marine divisions. Shoigu proposed to form five artillery divisions to support the military districts.

He put forward the idea of increasing the number of the Russian forces to 1.5 million servicemen, including 695 thousand contract servicemen (in the spring of 2021, Shoigu said that 380 thousand Russians were contract servicemen), gradually increasing the conscription age from 18 to 21 years and raising the age limit for recruits from 27 to 30 years. However, Shoigu did not specify the timing of these measures.

ISW assures that it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will form such a large conventional force in the timeframe relevant to Russia's war in Ukraine. Forming units is expensive and takes time. For example, Russia couldn’t fully staff its existing brigades and regiments before a full-scale invasion and has not fully built the new division it announced in 2020.

Russia's economy is in recession and its resources for capacity building have been significantly reduced since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia's net training capability has decreased since February 24, because the Kremlin has used training elements to participate in the fighting in Ukraine, significantly weakening their capabilities.

Russia is reportedly engaging Belarusian instructors to train mobilized forces and possibly contract and conscript soldiers. Its authorities indicate that Russian training capacity is limited. After all, the Russian officer corps was devastated during this war.

Nevertheless, Shoigu's proposals are an overture to reassure the milblogging community. It has accused the Kremlin of not fighting the war seriously or taking the measures necessary to win the war. Shoigu establishes information conditions for the Kremlin's future mobilization waves. By these conditions, he is going to staff these formations and/or a significant build-up of lasting Russia's military power, experts say.

• Today, ISW also stressed that Putin would not dare to use nuclear weapons. It is aimed only at reassuring the domestic audience and intimidating the West.