ISW: Russia stages "attack" on Kremlin to cancel May 9 parade 

Analysts of the ISW Institute for the Study of War came to this conclusion.

As expected, Russia blames Ukraine for the drone "attack" on the Kremlin. At the same time, the Russian Federation probably organized this attack. Several signs indicate that the strikes were carried out by internal forces and purposefully orchestrated, the publication said.

The Russian authorities have recently taken steps to strengthen the internal capabilities of their air defense systems, including in Moscow itself, and therefore it is "extremely unlikely" that two drones could penetrate several echelons of air defense and explode or be shot down right "over the heart of the Kremlin" and to be captured on camera.

Geolocation images from January 2023 show that Russian authorities are deploying Pantsir anti-aircraft missile systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city, experts say.

“A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment,” the report reads.

ISW also draws attention to the fact that the Kremlin failed to provide a timely and consistent informational response to other military humiliations, including the loss of previously captured Balaklia and Kherson in September and November 2022.

"The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience," the article says.

In addition, the Kremlin could use such an "attack" to justify either canceling or further curtailing the May 9 celebration, which would likely reinforce a media effort that portrays the war against Ukraine “as directly threatening Russian observance of revered historical events."

ISW has previously assessed that the Russian Federation is taking a number of steps to present its war of aggression against Ukraine as existential to Russian audiences and to prepare for wider social mobilization.

• Russia accuses Ukraine of attempting to attack the Kremlin with a drone on the night of May 3.

• After the drone explosion over the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev said that it is necessary to "physically eliminate" Zelenskyy and his government.