ISW predicts impact of attack on  Russian-occupied Crimea

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

American experts draw attention to the fact that Russian occupation officials in Crimea reported another drone attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol on August 20. The Russian-appointed "governor" of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, claimed that Russian forces were unable to shoot down a drone that crashed into the roof of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters. Then he retracted his words and said that the air defense had shot down the drone, which fell on the roof of the building and caught fire.

Footage on social networks shows a loud explosion and a cloud of smoke around the headquarters. The drone most likely detonated rather than being shot down. Experts identified the drone online as the commercially available Skyeye 5000mm Pro. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for the attack. Earlier, ISW reported that representatives of the occupation authorities of Crimea indirectly accused Ukraine of organizing a drone attack on the headquarters of the Russian Navy on July 31 during the Russian Navy Day.

ISW has suggested that the Russians are considering increasing security on the peninsula following attacks on military infrastructure, and such measures could draw forces away from the front line.

ISW previously concluded that the Russian Federation uses all types of security forces, including the Russian Guard, as combat forces, and will likely have to divert some of these units from performing duties in the seized territories to protect Russia-occupied Crimea.

"Russia's failure to stop attacks on occupied Crimea may cause discontent in Russian society. Footage on social media shows many Russians waiting in traffic to leave Crimea towards Russia, which may indicate growing concern about the effectiveness of security measures", the ISW concluded.