Espreso. Global

ISW assesses Wagner PMC's effectiveness upon return to Ukraine

2 October, 2023 Monday
11:08

The return of individual Wagner PMC members to Ukraine does not present a significant military threat, ISW experts state

client/title.list_title

This analysis comes from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

American analysts are uncertain about Wagner PMC's status due to negotiations regarding its future collaboration with the Russian government. The core combat units of Wagner PMC are scattered across various countries, including Belarus, the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali, and lack unified leadership.

On September 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Andrey Troshev, the former chief of staff of Wagner PMC, would oversee the formation of new "volunteer" units mainly tasked with operations in Ukraine within the Russian Ministry of Defense.

ISW has indicated it will reassess Wagner PMC's prospects as an effective military entity if it successfully reforms into a cohesive, large organization under the Rosgvardia or the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Previously, analysts believed that the fragmented elements of Wagner PMC posed a limited military threat to Ukraine.

However, ISW noted, "This initial assessment will be invalidated if the Wagner Group reestablishes itself as a coherent and large formation under the Russian government with effective centralized leadership."

More about the fate of the Wagner mercenaries 

Following the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin reported that mercenaries had been relocated to Belarus.

On July 31, it was reported that Wagner PMC had suspended the work of its regional centers for recruiting mercenaries " for an indefinite period". Also, by order of financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, they had to arrive at camps in the Republic of Belarus by August 5. 

Later, on August 23, an Embraer business jet belonging to Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed in the Tver region of Russia, with 10 people reported dead. The PMC financier Wagner himself was among the passengers.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, it was Russian President Vladimir Putin who ordered Prigozhin's murder in order to restore his dominance and avenge his humiliation.

On September 24, ISW reported that some contingents of Wagner PMC are likely to return to fighting in the ranks of the Russian occupation army in Ukraine. Instead, the mercenaries will not be able to help the Russian army significantly turn the tide at the front in their favor.

Wagner PMC mercenaries arrived from Belarus to the territory of the Eastern Military Group. Some of them are now renegotiating contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry to return to the front in Ukraine, but this does not pose a major threat to the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

On September 29, Vladimir Putin tasked Andriy Troshev, the former chief of staff of Wagner PMC, with organizing so-called volunteer units for the conflict in Ukraine.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Sunday
14 July
19:53
Ukraine's air defense forces intercept Russian cruise missile over Sumy region
19:23
OPINION
I wish new 1991 would come sooner
18:39
Russian army shells Kharkiv region, injuring woman
18:18
Drones strike Russian border town, locals appeal to Putin for help
17:42
Pre-Olympic protest in Paris honors Ukrainian athletes killed by Russia
17:01
Russia tries to claim Melitopol Cherry: Ukraine appeals to UN agency
16:34
Russian shelling of Dnipropetrovsk region injures 2 people, woman in serious condition after electric shock
16:10
Detained foreign ship helping Russia traffic Ukrainian grain from Crimea docked in Ukrainian port – Navy
15:46
Exclusive
Military, volunteers, and engineers are key to victory – aviation expert
15:09
OPINION
Impact of assassination attempt on Trump - Ukrainian expert Resurgam
14:30
Russia hits Ukraine with 3-ton guided aerial bomb
13:57
OPINION
Iron Curtain 2.0
13:15
Three more security agreements, new defense packages: Zelenskyy summarizes week of meetings with allies
12:47
Russia kills 6 people in Donetsk region, injures 11 more on July 13
12:10
Exclusive
Russia employs new tactics in July 8 missile attack, says aviation expert
11:36
Over past 24 hours, 160 clashes occur at front; Russia focuses on Pokrovsk direction – General Staff
11:00
Zelenskyy reacts to news that Trump is shot at campaign rally
10:25
Russia loses 1,320 soldiers, 46 artillery systems, 7 tanks in one day of war in Ukraine
2024, Saturday
13 July
20:00
Number of volunteers in army rises: 3rd Assault Brigade on how new law affected mobilization
19:40
Crimeans should prepare for military operation to liberate peninsula from Russia - Nariman Dzhelal
19:16
Russian army continues its offensive: 24th brigade reports on situation in Chasiv Yar
18:56
Exclusive
Diplomat Bezsmertnyi lists Ukraine's main lobbyists in NATO
18:34
Updated
At least 2 people killed, 22 wounded as Russia attacks village near Kharkiv twice
18:12
Exclusive
Take ratio of one to three: military expert on irretrievable losses on Ukraine's part
17:48
Exclusive
Putin's calculation is to hold out until November - Feygin
17:20
Exclusive
"Rabid dogs are shot, there is no other recipe": diplomat Bezsmertnyi on possible talks with Russia
17:02
Poland considers Kyiv's proposal to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine - Sikorski
16:28
Russian invaders kill two civilian women, wound two more people in Kherson district
16:01
OPINION
Russia threatens to destroy Kyiv hydroelectric station
15:49
Updated
Russian attacks kill 6 civilians, injure at least 22 others in Donetsk region on July 12
15:41
Ukraine has managed to return 161 civilians from Russian captivity since 2014
15:15
Russians are losing interest in Ukraine war - military intelligence
14:50
Ukrainian army knock Russian troops out of village in Kharkiv region: DeepState reports on situation at front
14:26
Review
Controversy over Storm Shadow use, new US military aid package. Weekly military review
14:01
OPINION
Oleksandr Kovalenko
Russia’s threat to destroy Kyiv HPP, Kaniv reservoir dams is not just blackmail
13:35
Exclusive
Military expert explains aim of Russian statements about provocations at Kyiv, Kaniv dams
13:10
Exclusive
Russian troops change tactics near Toretsk: start digging tunnels to get behind Ukrainian positions
12:41
Ukraine to receive 30 F-16 aircraft from Belgium by 2028
12:10
Russian missiles, drones contain components from 19 countries - Ukraine's Prosecutor General
11:41
149 combat clashes occur at frontline over last day: Ukrainian army repels most attacks in Pokrovsk sector
More news