ISW analysts assume intensification of Russian offensive attacks in early 2024

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Russia intends to continue offensive operations, particularly around Avdiivka. The White House believes that it will be easier for Russian troops to conduct offensive operations in low temperatures in late January and February 2024. “The fall mud season has hampered ground maneuver for both Ukrainian and Russian forces since 2014, but periods of prolonged freezing temperatures that typically start in late December freeze the ground and allow armored vehicles to move more easily than in muddy autumn and spring months,” the message says.

It is noted that the Russian military launched localized offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine during the period of “the most challenging weather of the fall–winter season to seize and retain the initiative rather than waiting for the hard freeze.”

“Russian forces will likely try to sustain or intensify these offensive operations regardless of weather conditions this winter, as Russian forces did in winter 2022–2023,” the statement says.

• Russians have increased the use of tactical aircraft and FPV quadcopters, and 86 combat engagements occurred on the frontline over the last day.