ISW: after liberating Kherson AFU can continue counteroffensive during winter

The Institute for the Study of War published their report on the official webpage.

On November 10, Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in the Kherson region while Russian forces retreated to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.

Ukrainian military authorities and geolocated social media footage reveal that Ukrainian soldiers had advanced up to 7 kilometers in some areas northwest, west, and northeast of Kherson City in the last 24 hours.

ISW experts say that Russian forces so far appear to be withdrawing in relatively good order, and Ukrainian forces are making expected gains without routing Russian forces, as they did in the Kharkiv counteroffensive. 

Ukrainian operations on the west (right) bank have successfully destroyed Russian supply lines, forcing Russian soldiers to retreat. Ukraine will liberate the Kherson region to the Dnipro River in the following days or weeks.

“The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City,” ISW claim.

Despite faulty Western expectations, ISW does not believe the fighting in Ukraine will come to a halt or approach a stalemate due to winter weather.

“Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months. If fighting does halt this winter, it will be due to logistical challenges and the culmination of several campaigns on both sides,” the experts believe. They also say Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. 

“A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.The major Ukrainian victory underway in Kherson Oblast will not be Ukraine’s last,” ISW adds.