Is China involved in Putin's decision to attack Ukraine?

The further dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be significantly influenced by the degree of China's support for Russia.

In order to understand how China will act in this matter, it would be important to know whether Beijing blessed (or initiated) Putin's decision to invade Ukraine on a full-scale basis. This is perhaps the most important thing to know in this context.

If China blessed (or initiated) this attack, Beijing's support for Moscow will be even more pronounced, and the Russian-Ukrainian war could likely become a prologue to a full-scale global war in the near future.

“By supporting the continuation of the war de facto, China will watch Russia's weakening in the hope of eroding US military capabilities and political fatigue in the West. Beijing needs this to equalize its capabilities with those of Washington.”

If Xi Jinping's regime is not involved in Putin's decision, then there are many more possible options for China's behavior. Supporting the continuation of the war de facto, China will watch Russia's exhaustion in the hope of eroding the US military potential and political fatigue of the West. Beijing needs this to equalize its capabilities with those of Washington. And China's further actions will depend on the state of the United States, NATO, and the West as a whole.

All of the above will work if the Russian-Ukrainian war drags on for a long time. That is why Beijing has come up with a 'peacekeeping' mission to actually drag out the war for as long as possible.

A quick victory for Ukraine will largely determine whether China will continue to pursue such a clear and intense race for global supremacy against the United States. Ukraine's victory can significantly adjust or postpone China's plans for global leadership. But this is a topic for another discussion.

Source

About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.