Hamas' success shows serious miscalculations by Israeli intelligence services, army

In the early hours of this morning, Israelis had a flashback to the surprise attack of the Yom Kippur War that started almost 50 years ago to the day, in October 1973. Hamas says it has launched 5,000 missiles deep into Israeli territory, The Spectator reports.

The missiles were used to mask a much more elaborate attack that saw dozens of Hamas terrorists, dressed in uniform and — according to reports on Israeli media — heavily armed with machine guns and grenades, invade Israeli territory.

"The intensity and complexity of the attack is unusual for Hamas. Its success is largely due to its surprise for Israel, which indicates serious miscalculations by the Israeli intelligence services and the IDF," the article says.

The combat capability of the army and intelligence services has been affected by deep internal divisions in Israeli society caused by the government's intention to carry out judicial reform, which has been criticized as an attack on democracy.

"Officers and soldiers, in particular pilots from elite fighter units, refused to be trained as reservists, which in some way affected the army's readiness," the publication writes.

Hamas needs a good reason to take a huge risk and start a potentially prolonged war with Israel, which would cause significant damage to Hamas itself.

"One of the reasons is Hamas's plan to dismantle the Palestinian National Authority, and the movement has become the main instigator of unrest in the West Bank. And a successful attack on Israel will increase Hamas' popularity in all Palestinian territories and help it seize power," the publication emphasizes.

Hamas is also concerned about the improvement of relations between Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia, which will significantly strengthen Israel's position in the Middle East.

An agreement between these three countries would also strengthen their position against Iran, a key Hamas ally that supplies the militants with weapons, trains them, and finances attacks on Israel.

The war between Israel and Hamas, especially if it leads to numerous Palestinian civilian casualties, will keep the Saudis from negotiating with Israel.

"Hamas can attract Hezbollah. If they join forces with smaller groups in Gaza and the West Bank, Israel will face a war on several fronts for the first time in many years - in the south, west, north and deep within its territory," the publication warns.