Explosions at Russian bases in occupied Crimea may be part of Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive - ISW

ISW shared the report.

A strike on logistical targets in Crimea, which is a sovereign territory of Ukraine, will not violate Ukraine's obligations to Western partners regarding Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons on the territory of Ukraine, or the stated US policy regarding Ukraine's right to use force  to regain control over its entire territory, including areas captured by Russia in 2014.

The Institute sees no signs that Ukrainian soldiers used US-provided weapons during the latest strikes on occupied Crimea.

"Attacks on Russian positions in and around Crimea are likely part of a coherent Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain control of the west bank of the Dnipro River," the report says.

Russian supply lines from Crimea directly support the occupiers on the mainland of Ukraine, including in the western part of the Kherson region. Ukraine's targeting of Russian land routes, rear and support assets in Crimea is consistent with Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, which also target bridges over the Dnipro River and Russian rear support elements in the occupied part of the Kherson region.

Analysts believe that the end result of this campaign will most likely be a violation of the ability of Russian forces to support mechanized forces on the right bank of the Dnipro, as well as the loss of opportunities to protect them from Ukrainian counterattacks with the help of aviation and artillery on the left bank.