Erdogan is testing how weak Putin is: international expert Danilov on return of Azovstal commanders

He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"Official Moscow has said that it will continue to cooperate with Turkey and is preparing Putin's visit to a bilateral summit with Erdogan. 

Obviously, Erdogan is testing how weak Putin is and what steps can be taken next. The Turkish president is setting new rules of the game, shaping his political battlefield. He is changing his position from the weak Erdogan who was before the first round of elections in Turkey and needed Putin's help. And now we see a weak Putin who needs Erdogan's support," said the deputy director of the Centre for Middle East Studies.

Serhiy Danilov noted that Erdogan has more room for manoeuvre and to take such unexpected steps.

Battle for Azovstal and the return of commanders from captivity

The Battle of Azovstal was a military operation that took place from 18 March to 20 May 2022 on the territory of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and the surrounding area as part of the battle for Mariupol during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The heroic defence of Mariupol lasted 86 days. Being completely surrounded, the city's defenders from the Azov Regiment, the 36th Marine Brigade of Ukraine, police, border guards and other units fought back against the enemy's vastly superior forces.

Most of the military personnel at Azovstal stood up to defend the city back in 2014, when it was necessary to liberate Mariupol from the occupiers for the first time.

The city was under siege from the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion. At that time, thousands of people were trapped in the Azovstal dungeon, including civilians, medics and almost 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers from various units, including the National Guard, border guards, paratroopers, Security Service officers and Azov soldiers.

Since the beginning of the fighting for Mariupol, a large number of people have been hiding at the plant. Ukrainian defenders shared food with them and helped with the evacuation. Thus, on 6 May, 3 servicemen were killed and 6 were wounded as a result of Russian shelling. They helped to bring out civilians for further evacuation.

As of 11 May, there were no civilians left at Azovstal, as they had been evacuated. However, there were still thousands of soldiers there, including those who were seriously wounded. All of them held out to the last. On 19 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that 1,730 Ukrainian soldiers had left the plant since 16 May, including 80 wounded.

After the battles for Mariupol, more than 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers from Azovstal were taken prisoner in Russia. This was reported by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2022.

On 28 July 2022, on the territory of penal colony No. 120 in Olenivka, where Azovstal defenders were held, the Russian occupiers committed a massacre of prisoners, killing 53 Azov regiment soldiers and injuring 130 others.

On 21 September 2022, as a result of the prisoner exchange, a total of 215 Ukrainian defenders were returned from Russian captivity, including Azovstal's defenders.

The prisoner release operation included three components: the exchange of Ukrainians for Vladimir Putin's godfather Viktor Medvedchuk, the release of 5 commanders with the assistance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the release of 10 foreigners who fought for Ukraine.

The five Ukrainian commanders - Serhiy Volynskyi, Svyatoslav Palamar, Denys Prokopenko, Oleh Khomenko, Denys Shlega - who were in charge of Azovstal's defence, were exchanged for 55 Russian prisoners. At the same time, Zelenskyy said that the commanders released from Russian captivity would stay in Turkey under the patronage of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan until the end of the war.

On 24 September, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said that Erdogan and Zelenskyy had agreed to exchange 15 Azov commanders, but only 5 were exchanged.

The deputy commander of the Azov regiment, Molfar, said that all the released Ukrainian soldiers had been tortured by Russians in captivity. The defenders were in a serious psychological and physical condition and needed help.

In September, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, spoke to the captured Azovstal commanders who were in Turkey at the time. It was reported that they had undergone medical examinations and their condition was being thoroughly checked.

As of June 2023, there were about 700 Azov Brigade soldiers in Russian captivity.

On 7 July, Ukrainian Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets reported that Ukraine had managed to identify most of the bodies of prisoners of war killed in a Russian terrorist attack in the village of Olenivka in Donetsk region.

On 8 July 2023, Azovstal commanders who had been held in captivity by Russia returned to Ukraine from Turkey: Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volynskyi, Oleh Khomenko, and Denys Shleha/ After returning from Turkey, Azov commander Denys Prokopenko (call sign 'Redis') and Azov regiment deputy commander Svyatoslav Palamar (call sign 'Kalyna') said they intended to return to the front.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine and Turkey of violating the agreements regarding the Azovstal commanders. "The return of Azov terrorist leaders from Turkey to Ukraine is a violation of the agreements. Both the Turkish side and Kyiv have violated the terms of the return," said Dmitry Peskov. Commenting on the return of the Azov commanders to Ukraine, Viktor Bondarev, chairman of the Federation Council's Defence and Security Committee, called Turkey's decision provocative.