Difficult political autumn: will Ukraine be forced to negotiate?

Espreso with the help of experts is trying to find out how the situation will develop and what will influence it.

Background

On August 12, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukrainians would face a difficult fall. The reason for this is the calls to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, which, according to the chief Ukrainian diplomat, will be heard from different countries.

This is not the first such statement from Ukrainian officials. In May, National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that a large-scale campaign was being launched around the world to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table on Russia's terms.

"There are a lot of proposals from different countries in this regard," he said at the time.

However, already on August 15, Oleksiy Danilov denied reports that the West was allegedly trying to persuade Kyiv to negotiate.

"Reports of this alleged pressure have not been confirmed by anything. They are only on the Internet. I don't know, maybe it's the work of the Russian troll army, but our partners did not set any demands to negotiate," he said in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

However, it is not only Russian "trolls" who make statements that Ukraine should negotiate on Russia's terms. A number of publications have appeared in the Western press about forcing Ukraine to peace. In particular, Politico writes that Washington is considering a Korean-style scenario of a war freeze in Ukraine. If Ukraine fails to expel the invaders from its territory, a frozen conflict could be a politically acceptable long-term outcome for the United States and other partner countries, as it would reduce the cost of supporting Kyiv. In return, Ukraine could be offered long-term security ties with the United States and NATO.

Statements by NATO representatives

The statements made by NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen's chief of staff during a public discussion in the Norwegian city of Arendal on August 15 also added fuel to the fire. The media concluded that NATO was offering Ukraine membership in exchange for territorial concessions to Russia. In fact, as noted by MP Mykola Kniazhytskyi, Jenssen only stated that even if Ukraine had to give up some of its territories, it should still become a NATO member. Later, Jenssen himself said that he was misunderstood and was only talking about broader "discussions about possible future scenarios in Ukraine."

But both NATO and Washington had to clarify the situation. Already on August 17, White House spokesman John Kirby denied that the United States was negotiating Ukraine's admission to NATO in exchange for an end to the war, or that Ukraine could be admitted to the Alliance within government-controlled territories.

"Right now, the focus is on helping Ukraine fight Russian aggression and regain the territories that fully belong to Ukraine. They are making progress every day, and we will continue to support them," Kirby emphasized in his statement.

At the same time, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius advised to be cautious about such statements from the NATO office.

"Representatives of the NATO office have no right to make public their personal opinions, they can only convey what has been agreed upon in the Alliance, where there is a common opinion and a common understanding. These are the rules, and even the Secretary General cannot add anything of his own to what has been agreed upon collectively. NATO's position was expressed in the declaration of the heads of state during the summit in Vilnius," explains the Lithuanian diplomat. "It is politically and morally wrong to trade in someone else's territory. Only Ukraine can decide when to negotiate, whether to do it at all, and no one can force it or even suggest anything in this matter."

Also, according to diplomat Pavlo Klimkin, there is no smoke without fire. And Ukraine should be prepared for such discussions, as they may continue in different forms.

"These words indicate that Ukraine's allies accept a "stalemate" on the battlefield, temporary or longer, and are discussing what this will mean in terms of security models. Of course, we do not like such discussions emotionally, but we must respect our allies and understand their logic, because we have no other allies and we critically need them in the fight for Ukraine," Klimkin said.

Pressure on Ukraine may increase

According to diplomat Volodymyr Ohryzko, pressure on Ukraine may indeed increase.     

"But I have always been a supporter of the approach that offense is the best defense. I think we should not wait for others to attack us in this sense. We have to do it ourselves. How? We know who is leading this line in the United States, in Germany, and in some other countries. So what is stopping us from preventing such potential acts of diplomatic aggression by our actions," the diplomat emphasizes.

As the full-scale Russian invasion continues, Ukraine already knows the group of politicians in the West who are pursuing a line of reconciliation with Moscow and can push the topic of negotiations. So, in his opinion, it is worth working ahead of their possible actions.

"We just need to look for evidence that they are conducting separate negotiations with Moscow behind our backs. And to give it to the public, let them justify themselves later. And not only to journalists, but also, for example, in their own Congress. I think this approach is much more effective than waiting for someone to tell us: "Well, you see, the counteroffensive is slower than we expected. So we shouldn't give you weapons, you should sit down at the negotiating table." I think we need to play proactively, and we have all the necessary capabilities to do so," explains Volodymyr Ohryzko.

The impact of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on the West's political line

Here it is worth mentioning the Financial Times article which said that much will depend on the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive this summer. If it fails or simply does not bring much success, Ukraine and its partners will be forced by the rest of the world to a truce with Russia on the status quo.

"This is exactly the case when the media leaks this or that necessary news, which is then sucked up, discussed and created a certain background. But here we can say clearly and distinctly that a lot really depends on the success of Ukraine's Armed Forces. And if we manage to break through this multi-layered defense system in the south, create a corridor to the Sea of Azov, and make Crimea a real island by cutting off all supply chains, then the situation will change dramatically," says Volodymyr Ohryzko.

At the same time, the diplomat emphasizes that the West also has an active influence on the success of the counteroffensive. This refers to the weapons that Ukrainian soldiers desperately need to advance.

"There is a vicious circle here. On the one hand, they are holding back the provision of the necessary weapons to us, and then they use the results we are getting at a slow pace to say that, you see, nothing is working, so we need to sit down at the negotiating table," says Volodymyr Ohryzko and adds, "This vicious circle must be broken, we must explain, first of all, to the public, who, thank God, is on our side, that this is a wrong way, that this is the way of thinking of the century before last - as if it is possible to agree on something with Russia.

According to the diplomat, a longer counteroffensive will require Ukraine to increase its efforts this fall, both politically and diplomatically, to get the necessary weapons, including getting them faster. 

"In the end, we get everything we need, but with a delay of several months, maybe even several dozen months, which is certainly a huge cynicism on the part of our some Western partners. We see these games of football: we will give, but let others give first, we will wait for this, but we will do it when we have this. Unfortunately, this is a reflection of the very trend we talked about, that some in the West live by the formula - Kyiv must win, but Moscow must not lose," states Volodymyr Ohryzko.

He is convinced that this is something that needs to be actively fought against, so that everyone eventually realizes that any attempts to talk or negotiate with Moscow are absurd and political short-sightedness.