Ukraine's fragile future: main scenario for 2025

So:

January-April 2025: A ceasefire is brokered under pressure from the U.S. and other countries, including China.

January-May: Negotiations to formalize the terms of the ceasefire (not a peace treaty).

May-June: Signing of an armistice agreement with key possible conditions:

• Ukraine gets stronger security guarantees from the U.S. and its partners than it currently has.
• Financial support is promised to rebuild the economy — essentially at the same level as prior war funding. This includes support for Ukraine's defense industry, ensuring self-sufficiency in defense technologies to counter Russia and eventually replace Russia in its traditional markets, in partnership with American corporations.
• Ukraine must abandon NATO aspirations to secure concessions from Russia.
• The conflict freezes beyond military contact by the end of January.
• A demilitarized zone (e.g., 200 km) is established.
• UN peacekeepers oversee the demilitarized territory.
• Partial territorial exchanges are agreed upon.
• The issues of Donbas and Crimea are shelved for 10 years.

June-July 2025: Martial law ends, and election campaigns for local, parliamentary, and presidential elections begin.

Restrictions on men leaving the country will be lifted, which could cause social tension and a drop in government approval ratings.

September-October 2025: Elections take place.

No one knows who will win. What’s clear is that 4-5 parties will enter parliament, with no single party dominating.

Parliamentary campaigns will center on slogans like:

• Justice.
• Rebuilding Ukraine.
• "Make Ukraine Great Again."
• Support for veterans and war-affected citizens.
• European integration and NATO.

However, parliament will once again lack professional politicians. Instead, it’ll be filled with respected veterans, volunteers, businesspeople, and activists — most without political experience, strategic vision, or real accountability to voters.

Remember 2015. Remember 2019.

What makes 2025 different?

Ukraine still doesn’t have ideological parties — just political startups where investors back candidates hoping to cash in once they’re in power.

The Prime Minister will be a compromise choice. The Cabinet of Ministers will be divided up by party quotas, leading to inefficiency. It won’t be able to pass a 5-year program in parliament, and eventually, its work will grind to a halt.

The President will focus on placing loyalists in law enforcement agencies and consolidating power over deputies and ministers.

No matter who becomes president, conflict with parliament will start within six months.

The Cabinet, hampered by flaws in the Constitution, will struggle. Ministers will face limits in appointing deputies and maneuvering.

Any attempts to improve the business climate or attract investment will be dismissed as budget losses.

Remember Pyvovarskyi’s case.

2026: The entire year will be spent trying to fix government operations.

Western support will slow down as Ukraine’s partners struggle to figure out who to work with.

What’s next for the economy and society?

• People will keep leaving in search of a better life.
• Businesses will continue struggling with funding shortages, heavy taxes, and unchecked actions by security forces. Production will keep moving out of Ukraine, starting with DefenseTech companies.
• Shrinking population and business activity will cut budget revenues. While Western aid and loans might sustain Ukraine through 2025, by 2026, they’ll likely run dry.
• The government will have no choice but to hike taxes again, suffocating businesses even further.
• The U.S. program to secure loans with critical materials will kick in. Raw materials will be extracted, exported, and processed elsewhere.
• Ukraine offers no real incentives — no credit financing, no tax breaks, no free economic zones.
• The country will continue slipping toward “banana republic” status.

The streets will face even harsher realities:

• Right now (as friends from related organizations tell me), there are already over 4 million unregistered firearms in circulation.
• Job shortages will trigger a spike in crime.
• This will drive even more people to leave Ukraine.

By 2027, a political crisis will erupt, leading to either the dissolution of parliament or the president’s impeachment — most likely the former.

Toward the end of 2027, another election will take place, set against the backdrop of a looming World War III and heightened risks of renewed Russian aggression.

...

Convince me this scenario isn’t realistic.

Nobody knows the future. But to avoid a negative outcome, you have to start by describing it.

At best, we can map out a positive scenario and work toward it.

For now, my inner paranoia says we’re already on the path I just outlined — and it’s not even the worst-case scenario yet.

Source

About the author. Anatoliy Amelin, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Programs, Ukrainian Institute for the Future

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.