China is not interested in Russia losing obviously

The main question should not be "Will China support Russia?" The question should be "How or to what extent will China support Russia?" This also applies to weapons. And money. And simply bypassing sanctions. 

China is now, like the US, assessing the boundary of "red lines" that are either too risky to cross or still acceptable within the framework of a general confrontation. And therefore, it also makes decisions based on the risk of controlled escalation. 

And now let’s consider it more detailed. Russia is China's largest ally and vassal. China obviously knew about its plans to attack Ukraine. All this talk about Xi Jinping not knowing is nonsense. He knew, of course. But I'm sure Putin promised Xi something like, "I'll solve everything in 2 or 3 weeks." And over the past year, China has hardly been happy to see what's been happening. 

“Russia is China's biggest ally and vassal. China obviously knew about its plans to attack Ukraine. All this talk about Xi Jinping not knowing is nonsense. He knew, of course”

China is not interested in Russia losing in an obvious way. To lose in an obvious way is not about losing what Russia has captured (including Crimea), but to cease to be a significant military force, or worse, to lose control and plunge into a whirlpool of turmoil. Therefore, the Communists will help Russia to hold on in one form or another.

But China will be very cautious in its actions. As it has been throughout 2022. Because in the case of open financial or military assistance, the Chinese can cross a certain number of red lines that the US still upholds.

If China becomes a party to the conflict (indirectly, like Iran), then part of the Biden administration, as well as Republicans and Democrats who consider China to be the main threat, will become more determined. To undermine the power and authority of not only Russia but also China. The Chinese take this into account, as 2022 has proved. 

“If China becomes a party to the conflict (indirectly, like Iran), then part of the Biden administration, as well as Republicans and Democrats who consider China to be the main threat, will become more determined. To undermine the power and authority of not only Russia but also China. The Chinese take this into account, as 2022 has proved”

And the US has something to respond with. By expanding the range and quantity of supplies to us, imposing sanctions on Chinese companies, expanding military cooperation with India (China's main rival in the region), and creating obstacles to trade. 

What factors fundamentally affect China?

• China is critically dependent on supplies by sea through narrow routes that are mostly controlled by the US Navy. Russian routes cannot compensate for the sea even by 30%. 
• China's economy has lost its previous growth momentum, has accumulated a huge number of problems, and is suffering from a permanent debt crisis (most Chinese companies are overdrawn by 300+% of their own capitalization). 
• The Chinese Armed Forces are still in the process of rearmament, with an emphasis on the navy and aviation. Because the potential front will require the navy, aviation, and missiles. And the upgrade program is due to be completed no earlier than 2025. 

Under such circumstances, the Chinese will be cautious about escalation. This was proven by the tension around Taiwan in the fall. But communists wouldn’t be communists if they weren”t insidious by nature. Therefore, they will, once again, help Russia. 

“The assistance will be cautious and limited, because sanctions are a big risk for Chinese technology companies”

What may Russia get in reality? (emphasis on may). At the first stage: drones (including “kamikaze” drones) and anti-drone weapons. Because these are the weapons that are easiest to present as "Russian" and China is good at manufacturing them. But here, too, the assistance will be cautious and limited, because sanctions are a big risk for Chinese tech companies. And we have already had such precedents. As for other weapons, their potential supply is as far away as Ukraine being supplied with the Death Star. 

However, we should not dismiss the possibility that the Chinese may resort to irrational actions and be in a great hurry if Russia is obviously falling. But if (when) Russia begins to fall rapidly, its army irrevocably degrades, and its political and economic system is in crisis, then equipment supply will not save it. 

But any China’s assistance means additional losses for us and our allies, and therefore any steps that can stop or slow down their complicity are appropriate. Both our diplomacy and the diplomacy of our allies are working on this. 

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, expert in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.