Biden and Ukraine's security: neglect of guarantees, "escalation management" and strategic uncertainty

To begin with, I want to remind one telling fact about Biden from 7 years ago, particularly his shameful speech in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on December 8, 2015 after the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of Moscow's armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014. It could be rightfully the Chicken Kyiv speech 2, because, in my opinion, the strategic failure of this speech is equivalent to when President Bush's disgraced himself before Ukraine and the world, by speakingin Kyiv in the Verkhovna Rada with the infamous "chicken" speech (Chicken Kiev speech) less than a month before the declaration of independence of Ukraine on August 1, 1991. He then urged Ukrainians to preserve the USSR and not succumb to "deadly nationalism".

After all, as the Americans admitted, President Bush Sr. was afraid of the collapse of the nuclear superstate of the USSR. However, this did not stop the collapse of the nuclear empire, and it is an obvious lesson that the objective course of history and Ukrainian aspirations to independence will not be stopped by any fears of "timid" political actors, even such influential ones as the US president.

"On December 8, 2015, in his lengthy 35-minute speech in the Ukrainian parliament, Vice President Biden, who is responsible for the Ukrainian direction under President Obama, did not mention a single word about the guarantees of security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine provided at the highest international level, nor about the supply of modern American weapons  for the self-defense of Ukraine to fulfill the given guarantees."

Then, in 2015, Vice President Biden, who was responsible for the Ukrainian direction under President Obama, in his lengthy 35-minute speech in the Ukrainian parliament, did not mention a single word either about the unprecedented nuclear disarmament of Ukraine under US pressure, or about the guarantees of security and sovereignty provided at the highest intergovernmental level  and territorial integrity of Ukraine, not least about the supply of modern American weapons for Ukraine's self-defense in fulfillment of the given guarantees.

In the more than 30-year history of Ukrainian-American relations, the Budapest Memorandum is the only document signed at the highest level by the US president. But the signature of the most powerful official in the world, as well as a fellow party member of Obama and Biden - Democratic President Clinton, ultimately meant nothing to them.

So the only world superpower, as it turned out, can completely disregard the legitimacy and significance of the signature of its state leader, as the Obama administration did in 2014-16, and in particular Vice President Biden in his speech in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

As a member of parliament present in the hall, I did not even stand up and applaud as a sign of protest after the end of Biden's cynical mentoring speech in the Council, like did some of my other colleagues.

Did Biden's attitude to the issue of Ukraine's security change after he was elected president of the United States, and especially after the start of a full-scale barbaric invasion by the neighboring horde? In my opinion, if any changes occurred, they were not fundamental.

"President Biden's administration provides limited military support to Ukraine within the framework of the doctrine of "escalation management" and strategic uncertainty regarding the final outcome of the war."

President Biden and his administration are actually providing limited military support to Ukraine within the framework of the doctrine of "escalation management" and strategic uncertainty regarding the ultimate outcome of the war.

The Biden administration, it seems, seeks to "prevent the defeat" of Ukraine, to exhaust and weaken Russia to some extent, and then to end the war with a "diplomatic solution" based on "compromises" that are "acceptable" to Ukraine.

And also to keep Moscow as a potential international partner for the future, perhaps at the expense of national interests, strategic security and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The acceptability, rationality and expediency of the compromise "diplomatic solution", and in fact the unjust and shameful concessions to the imperial aggressor, will be publicly and secretly convincing the bloodied and exhausted Ukrainians in a soft and not so soft ways.

The components of such a policy of the Biden team, in my opinion, are:

 - a proposal to get the state leadership of Ukraine out of the country at the beginning of the aggression;

 - refusal to implement any "closed sky" mechanisms over Ukraine;

 - the assortment of weapons in military support of Ukraine is extremely limited in terms of technological capabilities and quantity;

 – a manual mode of "drip" military aid with extremely selective satisfaction of requests from the Armed Forces of Ukraine regarding the types and amounts of weapons;

 – undisguised sabotage of the Lend-Lease law, which should procedurally (and not manually, at the will of Biden administration officials) ensure the systematic supply of the nomenclature and volumes of weapons agreed with the Ukrainians;

 - the ban on the use of American weapons for strikes on military targets on the territory of Russia and even the secret modification of the provided modern weapons with a reduction in the range of their combat capabilities;

 - refusal to provide critically important modern types of weapons capable of radically changing the course of the war and accelerating its end with the victory of Ukraine (Patriot-type air defense systems, short- and medium-range missiles, F-16 aircraft, etc., combat helicopters and tanks manufactured in the USA);

-the limited and relative weak economic sanctions, which have a minimal impact on the Russian economy (a slight drop of only 3-4% of GDP in 2022) and its ability to finance the war against Ukraine;

 - systematic signals to the authorities of Ukraine from leading members of Biden's team regarding the expediency of a "diplomatic solution" based on negotiations with the Kremlin, in particular from National Security Advisor Sullivan, General Milley, Secretary of State Blinken, Assistant Secretary of State Nuland, etc.;

 – support by individual members of Biden's team for covert contacts with Putin's odious entourage behind Ukraine's back;

 - Biden's refusal to implement the decision-recommendation of the congress regarding the recognition of Russia as a state sponsor of international terrorism;

 - pedaling of the topic, in particular by Biden personally, the growing threat of nuclear war or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, which frightens Americans and creates a public demand for "de-escalation" and the end of the war not on the basis of victory over evil, on the basis of international law, justice and punishment for crimes, but based on "compromises", "negotiations" and "diplomatic solutions";

 - the removal of the Crimean Declaration, announced by the previous administration, with the commitment of the US to never recognize changes in the territory of Ukraine, particularly the annexation of Crimea, from the websites of the White House and the US Embassy in Ukraine - a hint of Crimea being one of the possible "compromises".

"The constituent policies of "escalation management" and strategic uncertainty are potentially incompatible with the national interests of Ukraine and the aspirations of Ukrainians to end the war on the basis of victory over evil, international law, justice and punishment for crimes, and not on the basis of "compromises", "negotiations" and "diplomatic solutions."

There are also other signs and components of the "escalation management" policy and strategic uncertainty on the part of the Biden team, which is potentially incompatible with the national interests of Ukraine and the aspirations of Ukrainians.

Therefore, we must not be fooled, reasonably evaluate our allies, act rationally and squeeze everything we can out of our partners in every possible way and despite all the obstacles.

The challenge before Ukrainians is life or death. Our spirit, will, victory, mind, hearts and hands are the only true guarantee of our survival and Ukrainian Victory.

 Source

About the author: Viktor Vovk is the vice-president of the Ukrainian Association for the Club of Rome, a physicist, MP, a former member of PACE and OSCE.

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