Battle of Zaporizhzia region: meaning, scale and consequences

Historical parallels of meanings

On June 23, 2022, I wrote that after a long assault by Russian forces on Severodonetsk and their capture of Lysychansk, "Stalingrad parity" came on all fronts. It became obvious that Russia can no longer conduct offensive operations that would lead to the capture of new Ukrainian territories.

At the same time, I noted that a battle similar to the one that took place on the Kursk arc during World War II would not take place in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.  Let me remind you that the main result of that battle was the complete destruction of any offensive capabilities of Hitler's army, the demoralization of part of the ruling elite, the command, the troops, and German society in general. The Battle of Stalingrad is the beginning of a strategic turn in the war (stopping the offensive), the Battle of Kursk is the end of the turn.

"The main result of the Battle of Stalingrad was the complete destruction of any offensive capabilities of Hitler's army, the demoralization of part of the ruling elite, the command, the troops, and German society in general."

In the current war in Ukraine, the "Battle of Zaporizhzhia" (on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk front) will be identical in content and, perhaps, in character to the battle on the Kursk arc.

Now the geography, the combination of the geographical factor, political meanings, military logic and the situation on the fronts make the "Battle of Zaporizhzhia" inescapable.

About the "Battle of Zaporizhzhia"

1) The main part of it will take place within the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. Within the rectangle marked on the map. For the Ukrainian troops, the main strategic goal is to cut the land corridor that connects the occupied Crimea and the Kherson region with Russia. To achieve this, it is necessary to liberate Melitopol and advance to the Sea of ​​Azov. Liberation of the port city of Berdiansk is also important to ensure the result.

2) Gaining control over Berdiansk will allow to enter the administrative border of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions. Russian troops advancing on Ukrainian positions west of Donetsk will come under attack. In general, Russian troops' rear to the south and east of Donetsk, up to the border line of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, will be under attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It seems that the Russian command is seriously afraid of losing control over Melitopol and Berdiansk, so it is equipping fortifications to the northwest of occupied Mariupol.

3) Ukraine's control over Melitopol and Berdyansk will mean the destruction of Russia's ability to supply its group by sea in the left-bank part of the Kherson region.

4) The liberation of Novobohdanivka and then Melitopol by Ukrainian forces will create an encirclement threat for Russian forces at the ZNPP, and Russia will have to withdraw its troops from Enerhodar. This will mean the complete liberation of the Zaporizhzhia region.

Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson region will be under threat of encirclement.

The Russian grouping in this region will be under crossfire from Ukraine’s Armed Forces from the north and from the west (from the right bank of the Dnipro River).

"If Ukrainian troops liberate Melitopol and Berdiansk, it would lead to a lasting result that will mean the collapse of the Russian idea of ​​a land corridor. Moreover, this will mean nullifying the Kremlin's gains in Ukraine, which it has made since February 24."

5) There will definitely be auxiliary strikes from the right bank, including landings and large-scale forcing of the Dnipro River.

6) If Ukrainian troops liberate Melitopol and Berdyansk, it would lead to a lasting result that will mean the collapse of the Russian idea of a land corridor. 

Moreover, this will mean nullifying the Kremlin's gains in Ukraine, which it has made since February 24. This will be a blow to Putin personally, to his entourage, plus large-scale demoralization in the Russian Federation.  For Putin's regime and Russian society, this could be a huge military and political disaster.

7) It is obvious that, based on all the supposed consequences, the significance of liberating Melitopol and Berdiansk is much bigger and larger-scale than the liberation of the Luhansk region to the borders of February 24.

"The battle of Zaporizhzia will be very tough and fierce. Russia also equips several fortification lines and deploys a large number of personnel. It looks like they are trying to create a "human shield" in each of the settlements in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region."

8) That is why the battle in Zaporizhzhia will be very tough and fierce. Russia also equips several fortification lines and deploys a large number of personnel. It looks like they are trying to create a "human shield" in each of the settlements in the occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region.

That is why, as I mentioned earlier, there is a high probability that the Ukrainian forces will have to spend a lot of time and resources on capturing Russian defense nodes.

This means that the deployment of Ukrainian troops to the Sea of ​​Azov, the liberation of Zaporizhzhia and the left-bank part of Kherson region are possible before the beginning of spring or until its middle. It is possible that this will happen in 2 stages.

9) Breaking the tight Russian defense in the Zaporizhzhia region will be carried out using a combination of 2-3 offensive operations.

Source

About the author: Volodymyr Volya, political scientist, international relations expert.

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