Attack on Israel isn't just terror, but military operation with Russian trace - military expert

Obozrevatel reported this with reference to military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko. 

The IDF was caught off guard by this strike. Israeli intelligence also slept through it, which seems unlikely given the amount of experience, the operators engaged, and the agent network. However, it also demonstrates that the terrorist group had a very high degree of preparation for today's strike.

Key dates

First and foremost, pay attention to the unique dates of what is going on. The "Doomsday" war began 50 years ago, on October 6, 1973, and ended with the utter defeat of the Arab alliance of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, backed by the USSR. Furthermore, the attack occurred on a Jewish holy day, the Shabbat of the Sukkot holiday week.

The dates were obviously not chosen arbitrarily or incidentally; the terrorist assault itself was cynically planned in advance. But the question is whether it was a terrorist attack. 

Military operation

The slaughter of citizens in the streets of southern Israel, at Sderot, Ashkelon, Ofakim, and other cities, was, of course, an act of terror. However, there is a crucial distinction: they did not follow the usual, chaotic, and disordered sequence of events geared only at massacring innocent victims at the hands of terrorists. They were, on the contrary, balanced, thoughtful, and tactical.

Under the sound of artisanal MLRS shelling of Israeli cities, groups on pickup trucks and motorcycles breached the border wall, aided by reconnaissance and strike components from the air, in the form of drones, as well as strikes not only on checkpoints and military units, but also thermal power plants, communication centers, and so on. 

"That is, we are talking not only about the highest level of secrecy in the preparation of such an operation, information about which was completely passed by the Israeli intelligence services, but also about the nature of careful planning of actions that is not typical of Hamas," the publication writes. 

And two points should be highlighted in this context. First, how is it that not a single MOSSAD agent received even the slightest hint of such an operation? Doesn't this imply that the MOSSAD network of agents has been thoroughly exposed, but the agents themselves have not been neutralized, but just distanced from the location where the operation was being planned?

The second issue is that the level of the operation's planning suggests the obvious involvement of uniformed handlers. First and foremost, there are the Iranians. But here's the thing: Russia is constantly lurking in the shadows of Hamas and Iran. And we should not count out its direct support in tactical plan matters, not just tactical.... Especially given how avidly the Russian media has come to endorse terror and bloodshed perpetrated by Israeli terrorists. 

As a result, this is a well-planned military operation employing a variety of improvised techniques of destroying heavily armored and airborne IDF equipment.

Israel's response

The reaction will almost definitely be as harsh as possible. I am startled by the primitive reaction of Palestinians who rushed to the streets to support the terrorists, which Hamas framed. It is improbable that the IDF will target terrorists selectively in order to eliminate the threat to Israelis as soon as feasible.

"The bloody morning of 7 October can be counted as a situational victory for Hamas, which will lead to nothing other than the elimination of most of the organization's functionaries and militants, with the inevitable accompanying casualties. They brought the punishment upon themselves," Obozrevatel notes. 

Also, despite the fact that the Hamas leadership (and not only it) is now hiding in Qatar, it is unlikely to feel at ease after today's massacre. I would not be surprised at all if Qatar does not become a safe haven for them.

Consequences

Israel will deal with this terrorist plague, but there has been a serious reputational blow to MOSSAD and the IDF.

Shot civilians in Israeli communities and homes, ridicule of detainees, torture of the bodies of those murdered, the humiliating capture of General Nimrod Aloni, who was paraded through the streets in his underpants....

Israel will respond, but it will be too late.

The dead, tortured, and tormented cannot be resurrected. Yes, they can be avenged, but Hamas has accomplished what it set out to do, even if it suffered dozens of times more casualties and was nearly utterly decimated in the next days or weeks. It has demonstrated that Israel is vulnerable and can be dealt devastating blows. 

"Images from southern Israel are painfully reminiscent of Ukraine's Bucha, Borodyanka, Irpin, and Hostomel... For more than a year and a half, official Israel has ignored a number of issues that could weaken Russia not only in Ukraine but also in the Middle East region. In turn, flirting with Russia has led to the fact that terrorist organizations have grown stronger and are capable of conducting military operations. And, in my opinion, an equally important consequence of the October 7 massacre may be not so much a large-scale IDF response, but a change in all previously applied priorities in the country's foreign policy. Of course, with the replacement of the unreliable political pool, which is more flirtatious than decisive," Kovalenko emphasizes.