Espreso. Global

ATACMS for Ukraine, explosions in Crimea: weekly military review by Serhiy Zgurets

23 September, 2023 Saturday

There are at least 200 military facilities in the occupied Crimea that serve the needs of the Russian army. Therefore, the list of targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea is very large, and the explosions will continue and grow with the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine

The US will send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine

So far, only one publication has confirmed the news of the US transfer of ATACMS missiles. In particular, NBC News. It was said that President Biden promised to give Ukraine a certain number of such missiles – we are waiting for confirmation. As for the number of these missiles. There were some reports when Zelenskyy spoke with the former British Prime Minister about a minimum number of 200 missiles. These missiles can be used from launchers that are already available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. These are the HIMARS MLRS. In total, the United States has produced more than 4,000 of these missiles. However, not all of them are in conventional condition. The company that manufactures them can produce more than 500 units per year. However, all of these missiles are now under export contracts. In any case, we understand that the Americans have a stockpile of these missiles and hope that they will be transferred to Ukraine and will be able to have a significant impact on the front line.

Attacks on the Russian military facilities in Crimea

There are at least 200 military facilities on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea that serve the needs of the Russian army. Therefore, the list of targets for the Armed Forces in Crimea is very long. After all, Crimea has become a bridgehead that the enemy uses to amass forces and then move to the southern direction of the front. The intensification of the work of Armed Forces of Ukraine in the occupied Crimea did not begin in recent days. It is worth noting that these attacks were preceded by the destruction of Russian air defense systems in the western part of the Crimean peninsula. Even then, it was clear that the Defense Forces were breaking through the Russian air defense system in order to use long-range missiles more effectively. On September 22, once again, a Russian military facility was attacked by Storm Shadow cruise missiles. In particular, the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Despite the fact that the enemy tried to use various defense systems, it did not help them. There was also a report of an attack on the Saky airfield. In particular, yesterday the deployment of Russian aircraft was attacked with modified Neptune missiles. Earlier this week, the reserve command post of the Russian Black Sea Fleet was also attacked. In any case, it is worth emphasizing that such attacks have become a systematic work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This allows them to weaken the enemy's ability to use command structures and complicates logistics for the occupation forces.

The aftermath of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' strike on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol on September 22.

All goals will be achieved: Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to destroy Russian military facilities in Crimea

The explosion season in the occupied Crimea will continue. We understand that Ukraine will receive ATACMS missiles from the United States, and German Taurus missiles are to be delivered in parallel. Then all Russian military facilities in Crimea will be within the range of these missiles. However, given the small number of these weapons, targets in the occupied Crimea must be chosen carefully enough to have an impact on the enemy's actions. It is worth noting that the main goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to force the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea, as well as to destroy the Russian army's cruise missile carriers. It is for these purposes that our partners' long-range missiles or our modified Neptune missiles are needed. Therefore, we see that the dynamics of Ukraine's firepower is increasing, which will certainly affect the course of hostilities.

Operational situation in the Zaporizhzhia sector

When the American Institute for the Study of War wrote that a significant turnaround was taking place on the southern front, I think it is a bit of an exaggeration. After all, we are talking about the tactical gains of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but they are taking place in a narrow section of the front. Indeed, in the area of Verbove, Ukrainian units were able to overcome the Russian so-called "Surovikin defense line". For this purpose, Ukraine used armored vehicles supplied by our partners. That is, there is progress that can be further used as a success and increase the ability to drive the enemy out of Verbove itself. However, it should be understood that this section of the front is developing in three directions: movement to Novoprokopivka, movement between Robotyne and Verbove, and movement to Verbove itself. All these areas are quite complex and not easy. Because the enemy is now resorting to a counterattack strategy. It is in this direction that the Russians are deploying their most mobile reserves, which is very depleting for the enemy. However, Ukraine also needs to make more efforts to push the enemy out of their positions. It has also become known that in addition to air assault brigades, the enemy has deployed two special forces brigades to the southern direction. Interestingly, Ukrainian brigades have repeatedly destroyed these brigades.

Map of combat actions in the Zaporizhzhia sector for September 13-19.

President Zelenskyy's visit to the United States

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visits to the United States have three components: weapons, long-term financial support, and security guarantees. As for long-term support, the issue of USD 24 billion for Ukraine is still being discussed in the United States. The issue of security guarantees is also being discussed, and we don't know any new details yet. However, as far as military assistance is concerned, there are some developments. During the president's visit to Washington, it was agreed on some promising cooperation between the defense complexes of Ukraine and the United States. In particular, the production of air defense systems. Ukraine has also received a new military aid package from the United States in the amount of USD 325 million, which will provide the most necessary supplies for the Armed Forces. This includes ammunition, artillery, anti-tank weapons, and engineering equipment. If this list also includes ATACMS missiles, President Zelenskyy's visit to the United States can be considered a complete success.

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