Trump’s next move: can U.S. halt support for Ukraine?

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

There are two main programs for U.S. aid to Ukraine with remaining funds: PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority) and USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative). PDA allows weapons to be sent directly from Pentagon stockpiles, while USAI involves contracts with manufacturers. Current available funds are $7.1 billion for PDA and $2.2 billion for USAI.

Can Trump block PDA aid?

Yes, Trump could fully block PDA aid, as it depends entirely on the president's decision. However, to prevent this, the Biden administration aims to deliver the entire $7.1 billion in aid before Biden's term ends. Most of the funds have already been allocated, and much of the aid is expected to physically arrive in Ukraine by year-end, making it difficult for Trump to intervene. 

Can Trump block USAI aid?

Blocking USAI aid is unlikely if contracts are already signed. Here's why:

Contracts with private companies: The U.S. defense industry is largely private and profit-driven. Once a contract is signed, manufacturers purchase materials, include revenues in financial reports, and affect stock market indices. Canceling contracts would result in significant financial losses for companies and harm the U.S. economy.

Control mechanisms: Although the Pentagon oversees defense contractors, existing contracts are legally binding. Breaching them would trigger penalties, damage corporate reputations, and risk billions in losses.

International implications: Many U.S. defense contracts involve international partners (e.g., Canada, Norway). Canceling contracts could strain diplomatic relations and harm foreign investors.

Economic and employment risks: Defense manufacturers often expand production based on secured contracts, taking on loans and creating jobs. Contract cancellations could lead to bankruptcies and mass layoffs.

Penalty clauses: Most major contracts include deadlines and financial penalties for non-compliance, making cancellations costly.

To summarize, while PDA aid is politically vulnerable, USAI aid is safeguarded by the structure of the U.S. defense market. However, ensuring contracts are finalized remains critical to securing the aid’s delivery.