Seoul has legal obstacles to help Ukraine

After Seoul accused North Korea of sending troops to support Moscow's forces, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated: "Although we adhere to the principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons, we may reconsider this stance more flexibly depending on the actions of North Korean forces."

Could the presence of North Korean soldiers on the battlefield—already confirmed by multiple sources—alter the course of the war? Clearly, this is what Putin hopes for. Moscow is desperate to achieve a decisive turning point in the conflict. Despite some localized successes in the Donbas region in recent months, no significant breakthroughs have been evident.

However, last month saw developments that could change the dynamics of this bloody conflict. By late October, reports of North Korean soldiers in Russia began to surface in South Korean and international media. The reports suggested that over 10,000 troops were involved. According to the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) of South Korea, "it is likely that some frontline units have already been deployed to the battlefield."

Other sources claim that 3,000 North Korean soldiers were secretly transported on civilian trucks from Russia’s Far East to the Kursk region and stationed in barracks roughly 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Additionally, some reports suggest that a small contingent of Kim Jong Un’s troops has already been tested on the front lines in the Kursk region, where most of them were successfully neutralized by Ukrainian forces.

"The arrival of North Korean troops on the battlefield shifts the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine into a new format, no longer limited to Russians and Ukrainians."

Since February 2022, Moscow has lost over 700,000 troops, and Putin is now heavily relying on North Korean military units to secure a victory. Ukraine finds itself at a disadvantage against Russia: no soldiers from its Western allies are fighting on its side, while Moscow has enlisted foreign forces.

It is reasonable to assume that these 10,000–12,000 North Korean mercenaries represent a test for Moscow and Pyongyang to gauge the effectiveness of North Korean troops in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is now crucial for Ukraine to swiftly neutralize this new reinforcement from Kim Jong Un.

If Ukraine succeeds in addressing this quickly and effectively, Pyongyang will need to reconsider whether it is worth continuing its participation in this bloody venture. It is clear that, under secret agreements between Putin and Kim Jong Un, the current deployment of North Korean troops was never intended to be the limit. This was only the initial stage.

It is not out of the question that the agreements foresee a tenfold increase in the number of North Korean troops, potentially reaching 120,000. Evidence supporting this possibility includes North Korea's decision to send General Kim Yong Bok to aid the Russian Federation. His involvement far exceeds what would be necessary for commanding a 12,000-strong contingent of mercenaries. Furthermore, Kim Yong Bok is not only a deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army but also a close confidant of dictator Kim Jong Un.

It can be predicted that this general, along with other North Korean military personnel, was tasked with preparing the groundwork for receiving a much larger contingent. This group likely represents the first wave of DPRK troops allocated to support Putin.

The confirmation by the United States and NATO of North Korean troops arriving in Russia, coupled with the potential for South Korea to provide weapons to Ukraine, invites analysis of the dynamics triggered by Kim Jong Un’s regime entering the Russia-Ukraine war. This involvement could lead to a dramatic increase in South Korea's military support for Ukraine. On the other hand, it also creates opportunities for escalating tensions not only between North and South Korea but also for sparking new international crises.

“Currently, South Korea, like Ukraine, perceives the deepening ties between Russia and North Korea as its greatest threat. Now, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol appears prepared to take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the Korean Peninsula, including closer cooperation with Ukraine—especially if Russia and North Korea continue to escalate military tensions.”

For this reason, the South Korean president has stated his willingness to make domestic policies more flexible regarding the prohibition of sending weapons to countries involved in conflicts.

Until now, the Republic of Korea has limited its support for Ukraine to humanitarian aid and non-lethal weapons. However, with North Korea’s entry into the Russia-Ukraine war, the current situation is likely to change significantly. Nevertheless, as a democratic and lawful state, South Korea would need to formalize such positive changes for Ukraine through legislative processes.

“The situation is further complicated by the fact that it will not be easy for President Yoon Suk Yeol to amend the current prohibition to make such a decision. A move of this scale would require legislative changes, which in South Korea’s system must be approved by the National Assembly, currently controlled by the opposition.”

Additionally, there is a possibility that official Seoul is not entirely prepared for a critical deterioration in relations with Moscow, especially as Russia has already begun threatening South Korea with severe consequences for its security. Moscow argues that South Korea's support for Ukraine allegedly poses a threat to Russia and its citizens.

Thus, South Korean arms shipments to Ukraine may occur indirectly, through allied nations. Seoul and Kyiv have already agreed to enhance cooperation on multiple levels, primarily by increasing the exchange of intelligence. Seoul is reportedly considering sending military personnel to Ukraine for reconnaissance purposes, aiming to properly assess North Korea’s operations, study their tactics, and participate in the interrogation of any captured North Korean soldiers.

As an initial step, the Republic of Korea could assist Ukraine by organizing a psychological warfare campaign to encourage North Korean soldiers to desert. In this regard, a group of 200 North Korean defectors, all former soldiers, has officially requested Kyiv and Seoul to send them to Europe to persuade their compatriots to surrender.

Careful but potentially effective measures by Seoul could act as a deterrent, discouraging North Korea from escalating its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

“However, deploying reconnaissance personnel could lead to a risky situation if DPRK and ROK representatives find themselves face-to-face on the front lines.”

This is precisely the scenario Seoul seeks to avoid, as it could trigger one of the most alarming outcomes—a proxy war on foreign soil between contenders for control of the Korean Peninsula.

Four possible scenarios for DPRK troops in Russia or Ukraine:

1. Technical support role: North Korean soldiers may serve as technicians providing logistical and engineering support behind the conflict lines, assisting with the maintenance of weapons sent by North Korea to the Russian army. Reports indicate that some North Koreans are already working in Russian units servicing KN-23 missile systems.

2. Limited deployment on Russian territory: North Korean forces might only operate within Russian borders, avoiding crossing into Ukraine or appearing in Moscow-occupied territories. This scenario aligns with reports that Ukrainian forces have already neutralized North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk region.

3. Direct combat in Ukraine: North Korean troops could participate directly in battles against Ukrainian forces on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory. This would be presented as cooperation and joint training between the two “friendly” armies under agreements between Russia and North Korea.

4. Gradual replacement of Russian troops: Over time, Russia might plan to replace its own forces in the Kursk region with North Korean soldiers. These troops would first need to adapt to combat conditions and gain battlefield experience. The freed-up Russian troops could then be redeployed to other fronts in the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, North Korean soldiers lack the necessary motivation to endure armed conflict, as they are merely hired for financial compensation. They are being sacrificed for the geopolitical ambitions of Kim Jong Un, which have little to do with the true interests of North Korea’s population.

As South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated: "This is a grave situation in which the actual deployment of North Korean troops on the front lines in Ukraine may happen faster than anticipated. The unlawful military cooperation between Russia and North Korea fundamentally undermines the rules-based international order and threatens peace on the Korean Peninsula and worldwide. Calling for the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops and an end to military collaboration between Russia and North Korea, we will actively take step-by-step measures depending on the progression of this cooperation."  

Note: This article was written before the events of December 2, 2024, when protests erupted in South Korea following the president’s declaration of martial law.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.