France’s Prime Minister resigns: what it means for Ukraine

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

Until a new prime minister is appointed, current Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier will continue to lead a “caretaker government.” However, the timing of appointing a new prime minister remains uncertain because the balance of power fundamentally hasn't changed: the New People's Front, Macronists, Republicans, and Le Pen's party - none of them hold a decisive majority. They will still be forced to look for a 'compromise prime minister.

Le Pen's stance: ideological choices or personal survival?

• Ideological alignment. Le Pen, whose party ranks third, would benefit more from supporting ideologically close Barnier rather than risking a candidate from Jean-Luc Mélenchon's camp.
• Legal issues. Ongoing European investigations could lead to her imprisonment.
• Reported negotiation. Le Pen allegedly linked her support for Barnier to Macron's potential intervention to shield her.

How their own decisions can harm Le Pen and Mélenchon

Ultimately, it’s Marine Le Pen's party votes that proved decisive in toppling the government. However, it’s highly unlikely that Le Pen can push for a more ideologically aligned prime minister than Michel Barnier. It’s also unlikely that Macron will make concessions to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. 

"In other words, Le Pen and Mélenchon find themselves back where they were three months ago. Le Pen once again suffers a strategic loss in her desire to spite Macron, as she undermines an ideologically closer prime minister and the Republicans, destroying even the appearance of relations with them," the author noted.

What about Macron

This alliance with the Republicans has given Emmanuel Macron:

1. Retaining his speaker. Allowed the Macronists to keep Yaël Braun-Pivet as Speaker of the National Assembly.

2. Securing key positions. Enabled Macronists to gain posts in secretariats and other bodies without Republican support, which would have been unattainable otherwise.

3. EU Commissioner advantage. Blocked Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally, who aimed to become France’s EU Commissioner, replacing him with Macron’s close ally and party member Stéphane Séjourné — a move that would have been harder without Republican backing.

4. Strategic win over Le Pen. Macron’s alliance with the Republicans was betrayed by Le Pen. Post-elections, Macron faced two exclusive choices: either bow to Mélenchon’s demands, strengthening him and shifting all these gains in his favor, or form a coalition with the Republicans, convincing some Le Pen supporters to back a center-right government.

Macron’s government is leveraging Le Pen’s betrayal of the right-wing spectrum to justify a strategic shift toward the center-left. By collaborating with Greens or moderate Socialists, Macron can propose a compromise prime minister from their ranks, balanced with Republican support, to stabilize the government. This move marginalizes both Mélenchon and Le Pen while allowing Macron to reinforce his centrist position. The situation is a delicate balancing act, akin to freeing a boat stuck between rocks, requiring careful maneuvering to avoid capsizing.

What it means for Ukraine

The parliamentary balances remain unchanged, as do France's personnel delegations to the European Commission and Macron's policy toward Ukraine. Barnier, who was in office, remains in his position for now.

“Amid all the domestic political battles, there has been almost no negative speculation regarding support for Ukraine, which is a generally positive sign,” the author concluded.