Russia's expanding shadow fleet raises alarms over potential military use

Politico writes about it. 

Russia's shadow fleet has ballooned since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with opaque ownership and outdated ships operating outside legal maritime frameworks. Initially built to bypass sanctions, this fleet now poses broader risks. Experts warn it could be used for strategic sealift — transporting military equipment like tanks and fuel.

“These vessels are already unofficially serving Russia,” said Svein Ringbakken, CEO of Norwegian maritime war-risk insurer DNK. “They’ll be available if things become less peaceful.”

Once limited to transporting sanctioned goods for Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea, the shadow fleet now includes over 1,000 ships — roughly 17% of the global oil tanker fleet. Many are aging vessels sold off after Western sanctions cut Russian oil access to insured, legal markets.

The fleet's growth was accelerated by a $60-per-barrel price cap imposed in December 2022, which forced Western insurers and shippers to sever ties with Russian oil transport. Many opportunistic owners hiding behind shell companies now profit from the Kremlin's dependence on this clandestine armada.

While some ships are unsuitable for commercial use, they still offer Russia a strategic advantage. The shadow fleet can easily transition from peacetime trade to wartime logistics, Ringbakken added, underscoring its potential for military purposes.

This concern is amplified by the state of America’s own sealift capabilities. Many U.S. military transport ships are over 50 years old, and the number of vessels has drastically declined — from 2,277 in the 1950s to just 92 today. Meanwhile, over 90% of U.S. military equipment bound for Europe relies on maritime transport.

Russia now has nearly 3,000 merchant vessels under its flag, with hundreds more likely available via the shadow fleet. By contrast, the U.S. has only 3.4% of the world’s merchant ships. China, with 5,997 merchant vessels and 842 under Hong Kong’s flag, is another rising maritime power, further complicating the equation.

America must act urgently. Fixing its own strategic sealift is the top priority, experts stress, especially with the growing possibility of conflicts involving both Russia and China. Yet stopping Russia from using the shadow fleet for military operations is equally critical.

Letting shadow fleet operators know the cost of aiding Russia militarily could deter their involvement. Supporting sanctioned trade might be profitable now, but supporting the Russian military would be a terrible idea, warned experts.