Russia is preparing a new war

Following the visit of Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to Tehran, the New York Times emphasizes that the main agreement between the leaders of Russia and Iran, discussed in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials, is to help Iran in its confrontation with Israel, and of course, it is not so much about political assistance as about supplying Iran with the weapons it needs.

First, Russia has to pay for the massive supply of Iranian drones that Moscow needed so much in the first months of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and second, Russia itself is interested in continuing the conflict in the Middle East to distract the West's attention from the war in Ukraine and demonstrate that Russia remains a serious regional and global player. 

Iran needs Russian assistance because it lacks effective air defense systems, especially for key sites, after Iran's latest unprecedented attack on Israel. The Jewish state then attacked a nuclear reactor that could be used by the Islamic Republic's authorities to produce atomic weapons, and many observers believed that Israel could have destroyed the reactor, but refrained from doing so, demonstrating that it was capable of breaking through Iran's air defenses in the most sensitive place for the regime.

So now, when Iran is again preparing for a major attack on Israel, the country's leadership needs to be sure that the key objects for the Iranian state (we are talking primarily about nuclear facilities and, of course, the very nuclear reactor that can be used to produce nuclear weapons, and of course, the main ports) will not be attacked by Israel. Because if this Israeli attack is successful, Iran, firstly, may lose the ability to produce nuclear weapons and the country will have nothing to blackmail the West with, and secondly, it will lose opportunities for its economy, because ports are the key place for Iran to transport goods that help the Islamic Republic survive under unprecedented Western sanctions.

Therefore, Sergei Shoigu's visit to Tehran was to demonstrate that Russia is ready not only to continue the war with Ukraine, but also to be an active participant in other conflicts, especially in the Middle East, and that the alliance between Russia, Iran, and North Korea, behind which one can see the shadow of China, is not an invention of Western politicians and media, but a real alliance that works primarily in critical moments for countries that have decided to change the world order and impose the rules of the game on the West.

And just as before, when Russia started the war in Ukraine, now, when Iran is starting a new level of conflict with Israel, this alliance is acting in terms of supplying the necessary weapons. Russia had relatively good air defense systems, but no drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure and try to destroy Ukrainian air defense, and Iran willingly provided Russia with all the capabilities to fight the Ukrainian defense forces, although it still denies any involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Iran lacks air defense systems, and Russia has reportedly already provided the Islamic Republic with Iskander missile systems and will continue to supply weapons to Iran so that it can reliably defend itself against possible Israeli attacks, and I am absolutely sure that just as Iran has not admitted any involvement in supplying weapons to Russia, Russia will not admit any involvement in supplying weapons to Iran: It is a favorite tactic of dictators to say that they are very peaceful, but the predatory West is supplying Ukraine with weapons, and thus destroying the possibility of peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv on Russian terms of humiliating surrender.

And here we should also pay attention to another trip of the Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, which took place immediately after his departure to Tehran, because from Tehran Shoigu arrived not in Moscow but in Baku and held talks with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.

Azerbaijan is known to be one of the few countries in the Muslim world that maintains close ties with Israel: Israel supplied Azerbaijan with weapons, especially those needed by the country in preparation for the Second Karabakh War.

Azerbaijan has difficult relations with Iran, however, President Ilham Aliyev has recently made efforts to normalize ties with Tehran. It is worth noting that the former president of Iran was assassinated during a visit to Azerbaijan, where he was attending a meeting to inaugurate a facility significant for bilateral cooperation. Both Moscow and Tehran might be concerned that Azerbaijan could rekindle its strong relations with Israel and potentially join the coalition of countries the United States is assembling to address the risks of a possible Iranian attack on Israel.

There is indeed a need for new members in this coalition, because so far no one has imagined the scale of the strike by Iran and its proxy army of terrorist organizations that control large areas and even entire countries, such as Lebanon or Iraq. And in this situation, of course, the main task of the Secretary of Russia's Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, is to keep the President of Azerbaijan from participating in any coalition aimed at stabilizing the situation in the Middle East, because, as I have already emphasized, this stabilization of the situation contradicts the plan of Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his main partner, the leader of the Islamic Republic.

It can be assumed that he will not only talk to Ilham Aliyev, but also warn the Azerbaijani president about the consequences of his possible participation in a coalition that is supposed to protect Israel. 

Source

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, Shevchenko National Prize winner

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.