Forecasted U.S. vote outcomes: what are the likely Senate, House, and presidential results

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel shared his opinions on the outcomes of the U.S. vote.

Senate: Resurgam's base prediction gives Republicans a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate. However, a 50-50 split is possible. The “main indicator,” they say, is Texas. If Democrat Allred can make significant gains there, the Democrats could still hold the Senate.

House of Representatives: Resurgam expects a narrow Democratic win in the House, forecasting 221-214 seats. The key battlegrounds are “toss-up” districts in Pennsylvania and New York. Harris’s presence in New York, where she is popular, aims to “tie candidate ratings to her” and help Democrats retain crucial seats. Pennsylvania could ultimately decide the House majority, with Democrats leaning heavily on Harris's performance there.

Presidential Race: Resurgam predicts Harris' victory, with Pennsylvania being the decisive state. "Winning Pennsylvania opens up multiple paths for victory," they note. Harris is favored in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump is likely to lead in Arizona and Georgia. North Carolina is now labeled "unpredictable."

Why Harris? Despite Trump’s strong polling, Resurgam argues that his campaign’s focus on Election Day mobilization, rather than mail-in voting, could backfire. "Trump’s team didn’t work well with mail voting," Resurgam says, as many “independent voters,” exhausted by toxic politics, may have already voted early. Harris’s team has strategically encouraged mail-in voting, which will prove decisive, according to the post.

On election night, Resurgam expects Trump to lead initially due to early rural returns, but Harris to gain ground as urban and mail-in ballots are counted. This, they suggest, could lead to Trump’s camp claiming “vote-by-mail fraud” as the results shift.