Moldova's choice: will Russia's Trojan horses win?

The campaign has entered a phase of personal attacks, but this won't change the fact that a second round will occur in November.

The real question is whether Ilan Shor will be ready to support the Kremlin's candidate, who is backed by another faction. It seems the Kremlin might have to rally Shor's support for Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is running as a socialist.

Meanwhile, Vlah and other Trojan horses could allow Renato Usatîi to slip through to the second round. Usatîi has effectively positioned himself as a viable option for the center-left electorate.

In our analysis of potential scenarios for Moldova in 2024-2025, we noted that this is the only one that can realistically unfold. It's great that it happened. 

However, the Kremlin has successfully played out the “new favorite” scenario that we predicted over six months ago.

So, it’s premature to claim a guaranteed victory in the second round. The competition will be intense, and Moscow's agents still have some tricks up their sleeves. Yet, in this “50-50” situation, I feel more optimistic than pessimistic.

When it comes to the parliamentary campaign, it's a different story. The PAS party, which is the parent structure of Maia Sandu, won’t be able to secure more than 33% (plus or minus 3%).

This raises the question of who will form the next parliamentary majority - and consequently, the government.

On Monday, I’ll be visiting Chisinau to discuss the upcoming parliamentary elections. Let’s see if there’s a way to disrupt Russia's plans...

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About the author. Ruslan Rokhov, member of the Board of the Center for Constitutional Design.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.