Will Russia target Ukraine's gas transmission system?

Recently, Bloomberg published an analysis of gas transit through Ukraine. One of its statements is particularly striking: "In making the decision, the Ukrainian leader must consider the need to protect the country’s 38,600-kilometer gas pipeline system. The network, among the world’s largest, has been spared attacks over the last three years as Russian gas has flowed though it. If that were to stop, the system might become a target for missile strikes, as gas storage facilities and power supplies have been."

What is wrong with this?

The statement “Over the past three years, this network...has not been attacked because Russian gas has been flowing through it...if this stops, the system may become a target for attacks, as it has already been with gas storage facilities...” is manipulative! The mileage of Ukraine's gas transportation system is not particularly important. The pipes are mostly underground, making them difficult to target, as it's not easy to attack something you can't see.

Since March 21 of this year, Russia has been targeting Ukraine's gas transportation system. However, it’s wrong to treat gas storage facilities as separate from the gas transmission system (GTS). The fact that, after the unbundling of Naftogaz, there are separate operators for underground natural gas storage facilities and the Ukrainian gas transmission system does not negate the technological unity and integrity of the overall system.

"The attacks on the compressor stations in the Stryi district are primarily aimed at European gas traders, trying to pressure them into stopping the use of Ukraine's underground storage facilities. As a result, GTS (gas transmission system) facilities are targets for Russian attacks, regardless of whether gas transit is happening. It’s either naive or a deliberate manipulation to believe that maintaining transit is a form of insurance against these attacks."

Insurance is something else entirely. While Bloomberg's author mentions the length of Ukraine’s gas pipelines - 38,600 km - they fail to note that Gazprom operates 17,260 km of pipelines. The more important detail is that Gazprom has 254 compressor stations and 23 underground natural gas storage facilities. These facilities are mostly located within reach of Ukrainian Defense Forces.

It’s also worth reminding Bloomberg’s readers that Russia's energy sector is largely based on thermal power, with less than 20% of its capacity coming from nuclear power, and nearly 70% of its power generation relying on gas-fired plants. All of this critical infrastructure is within the affected area. And the Ukrainian Defense Forces have barely begun their operations. Once they do, what happened in 2024 with Russian processing or fuel bases will seem like small potatoes.

"If the Kremlin wants to create a Holodomor in Ukraine, it should consider what Russian cities might look like after the Ukrainian Defense Forces "degassed" their energy facilities. If anyone in Moscow has forgotten about this possibility, the Ukrainian forces can certainly remind them."

There's no need to be under the illusion that manipulations in foreign media are simply a result of journalists’ ignorance of the "math part." Everyone knows what "Gazprom propaganda" looks like. This is an additional tool of media and psychological pressure aimed at persuading the Ukrainian government to continue gas transit. It’s unfortunate that media outlets in Ukraine often mindlessly reprint and amplify these manipulations, playing right into the Kremlin's hands.

At the same time, the Kremlin is pursuing corruption-driven options disguised as “pragmatism.” The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is a key target of this influence. Bloomberg quotes the Ministry as saying that "negotiations are ongoing and the possibility of a last-minute deal cannot be completely ruled out." However, it also cites Benjamin Schmitt, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) and the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania, who warns: “Continuing the transit of Russian gas in any form - whether through an open extension of the contract with Kremlin-controlled Gazprom or under any other guise, but still de facto Russian - would be dangerous for Ukraine.”

Source

About the author. Mykhailo Honchar, expert on international energy and security relations, President of the Strategy XXI Centre for Global Studies.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.