Middle East: potential war scenarios between Israel and Iran

The Israeli-Iranian war could set a precedent for the first military conflict within NATO. The likelihood of a confrontation between the United States and Turkey is currently low, but Erdogan is trying hard.

Israel has no choice but to retaliate against Iran's attacks on its territory. The only question is how bold Israel's response will be. There are, by and large, two scenarios.

Light: Jerusalem is considering the possibility of striking Iranian targets in Yemen or Syria. Recently, Bild reported that the IDF attacked the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria, destroying a large shipment of weapons for Hezbollah.

Hard: Israel strikes oil fields and other strategic non-nuclear targets in Iran. This prediction fully aligns with the Israeli government's statement that "the response will be more tangible than before."

Destroying the military potential of the ayatollahs and bleeding their economy should exclude Iran from the axis of evil, and then it will have no time to cooperate with Putin.

If Israel goes further and eliminates Khamenei, Iran's religious leader and the architect of the country's radical Islamist policies, this could open the door to negotiations with secular President Pezeshkian, who currently plays a secondary role and is essentially a figurehead. The Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah would lose support. The center of radical Islamism, which seeks to destroy Israel and threatens the U.S. and the EU, would be weakened.

For the U.S., this vendetta is a matter of honor, rooted in the 1978 Islamic Revolution. Every American president has attempted to eliminate the threat, but none have succeeded. Biden and Kamala Harris have already made it clear that they will continue the aggressive policy.

In the current reality, weakening Iran offers a chance to resolve one problem and finally focus on others: Russia and North Korea. This would deprive China of its reliable allies while supporting U.S. partners: Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

This is a dire moment for Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei has long followed a strategy of "neither peace nor war" -  Iran supports regional militias that oppose Western and Israeli interests but avoids direct involvement in war.

Iran is not ready for total war - its economically weakened society does not share its leaders' hostility toward Israel, and its military capabilities are no match for Israel's advanced arsenal. Iran lacks significant air defense systems and an air force, while Russia is in no hurry to supply them.

Khamenei and his generals will have to decide—either do nothing and lose even more authority, or risk a potentially catastrophic war, which could draw in the U.S. with a retaliatory strike.

From Israel's perspective, the only factor of uncertainty is Turkey's President Erdoğan, who lashes out at Netanyahu: "No person with a shred of conscience can remain silent in the face of such a network of killings. Just as Hitler was stopped... Netanyahu will be stopped in the same way." It's hard to imagine Turkey entering this war, but if it happens, even the most seasoned geopolitical expert couldn't predict the consequences: two NATO countries, the U.S. and Turkey, would be on opposite sides of the battlefield.

A scenario in which Israel wins with significant support from Washington appears promising. Jerusalem continues its "military operation" and is in a favorable position due to backing from the superpower, the U.S. However, we are now in unpredictable times, where forecasts of a Third World War are no longer met with the same horror as in the 1950s. The world is reaching a boiling point, with countries taking sides and preparing for small skirmishes today to avoid larger conflicts tomorrow.

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About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.