How Russia will fight NATO

NATO countries rely on the military and economic power of the U.S. and the strength of the Alliance. They see no reason for Russia, even under Putin, to attack NATO. In fact, Russia has consistently avoided direct confrontations with NATO forces.

However, Russia’s aggression in Crimea and Donbas shows it can conduct large-scale operations while masking its involvement from those who choose to overlook the obvious.

The West is not blind to such tactics. They’ve even been featured in films.

In a prime example of British humor, Yes, Prime Minister lays out the "salami tactic" — a way Moscow could wage aggression without giving the West a reason to respond with nuclear force.

Agents start fires in West Berlin, fire trucks from East Berlin rush in "to help," special forces sneak in… By the time the West realizes what's happening, it’s too late, and they’ve lost their justification for retaliation.

Modern storytellers haven’t strayed far from this theme. The BBC’s World War Three: Inside the War Room showcases Russia invading eastern Latvia, drawing on its tactics from Crimea and Donbas.

In Yes, Prime Minister, the protagonist ultimately agrees on the need to invest in conventional weapons to counter the "salami slicing" early. Meanwhile, in World War Three, the West hesitates to launch a full-scale nuclear strike, even after Russia "accidentally" initiates a tactical nuclear hit.

These scenarios underline that a war between Russia and NATO isn’t some far-fetched fantasy. Both sides know it. But "knowing" and "accepting reality" are two different things.

For Ukraine, the main goal is to secure the support needed for victory.

As for the West, we need to position ourselves not as the ones dragging them into war, but as the ones who will prevent it.

Moreover, we must become part of a collective system to avert a global conflict and stop Russia in its tracks.

This includes joint production initiatives, deepened connections at all levels — from parliaments to experts and journalists — to counter hybrid threats and propaganda in Western societies.

And, crucially, fast-tracking NATO membership. NATO must become the cornerstone of post-war security, enabling rapid coordination to counter Russia across the full spectrum of threats.

With such preparation, Russia's "salami tactics" can be thwarted before they even begin.

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political technologist, lecturer. People's Deputy of Ukraine of the 9th convocation

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.