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China, Russia are working together to invade Taiwan

10 May, 2024 Friday
18:55

For China, cooperation with Russia has not yet crossed the 'red lines'

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Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress that US intelligence has recorded increased cooperation between China and Russia on the Taiwan issue. In addition, Haines added that intelligence assessments indicate an increase in cooperation in the political, economic, military, and technological segments.

General Jeffrey Kruz, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that the United States and China will deepen cooperation and "if we had a conflict with one country, there is a high probability that we would have a second front." This threat affects military planning, the estimated needs for equipment and people.

What is interesting. This information from the US military and intelligence is published amid two other lines of escalation.

The first is another escalation in the South China Sea: China recently attacked a Philippine ship again, the third such incident in six months. Let me remind you that China is trying to "squeeze" almost all the water area from the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.

The second is the intensification of the spy network in Europe. In recent weeks, suspected spies for China have been detained in Britain and Germany. A member of the far-right Alternative for Germany was caught up in the scandal. The intensification of the spy network in Europe is associated with the gradual "cooling" of relations between China and the EU amid Russian aggression.

“In European espionage, we can also see close cooperation between Russia and China: the Chinese spy network is in active contact with far-right politicians and movements that have been fed by Russia for many years. Both countries want to undermine the positions of Western countries: first of all, to increase the polarization of societies in Europe and the United States by feeding radical political movements.”

At the same time, all parties continue to behave cautiously:

  1. The European and American markets are too important for China. Especially amid the crisis that the Chinese economy is gradually sinking into. 
  2. Europe is largely trying to maintain economic ties with China as an important trading partner and investment destination. However, cooperation is gradually being curtailed. 
  3. The United States is reorienting itself to Mexico, India, and Southeast Asia as a production base, but this will take time.

To sum up:

  1. For China, cooperation with Russia has not yet crossed the 'red lines,' as large-scale sanctions could have unpredictable consequences for China. And there is no direct threat of an invasion of Taiwan in the near future.
  2. For the United States and especially for Europe, a direct confrontation with China is still an extremely unacceptable scenario, which they will try to avoid "to the last.”

But tensions continue to rise at all hypothetical points of contact.

Source 

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist and strategic communications specialist in business, public administration and politics.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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