Ukraine's partner and friend is democratic Taiwan

Some saw them as a dramatic change in Beijing's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war, with a shift away from supporting Russia and toward the pro-Ukrainian camp. This is how many interpreted Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement about “a clear signal that China supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.” According to the president, Xi Jinping promised that “China will not supply weapons to Russia.” 

Other observers saw the conversation between top Ukrainian and Chinese diplomats as a treachery. They say that the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that “Kuleba said that China is a great power” and that “Ukraine supports China's position on the Taiwan issue and will continue to adhere to the one-China principle.” 

Everyone should calm down and take the facts as they are, because China has not fundamentally changed its position on Ukraine and Russia. It continues to help Moscow evade sanctions, supplying electronics and equipment to the Russian military-industrial complex.

The Ukrainian minister also did not say anything controversial when he repeated the “one China” formula. It is used by the United States, the EU, and other countries around the world. The formula did not prevent President Joe Biden from answering “yes” when asked by journalists whether America would defend Taiwan. 

Everyone understood that he was talking about defense using military force. 

“Peace summit” without a peace plan 

The conversation between Kuleba and Wang Yi was a political gesture, which is not very important, because the ministers did not even bother to sign a joint communiqué. In diplomacy, a joint communiqué is the most cautious expression of common positions on issues that the parties are interested in resolving.

What are the motives of the Ukrainian side? The Ukrainian authorities are trying to continue the series “Peace Summit according to the Volodymyr Zelenskyy formula” after the not-so-successful first episode. I am referring to the meeting in Switzerland on June 15-16, which brought together representatives of about 90 countries, most of whom signed the final document outlining the 3 points of Zelenskyy's “peace plan.” 

They include a ban on the use of nuclear weapons, freedom of navigation, and the release of prisoners. But without mentioning the main points of the plan: the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the restoration of the territorial integrity of our country, the payment of reparations, the conviction of war criminals, etc. 

The Ukrainian president declared the Swiss meeting a “success” that will be continued at the end of 2024 with the participation of Russia. The problem is that without China's encouragement, Russian diplomats will not participate in any “Zelenskyy Peace Summit.” So, Ukrainian diplomacy should make every effort to get the Chinese to show up and bring Russians with them.   

Xi Jinping is Putin's accomplice 

On China's motives. Beijing did not participate in the Swiss meeting because China believed and still believe that Kyiv is not a match for them. China can and should talk about world politics only with the West, and from a position of strength. In February 2022, Xi Jinping and Putin challenged the United States and its allies with a declaration of “comprehensive friendship.” And so Xi Jinping sees his “peacekeeping missions” that began in 2022 as an element of “redrawing the map of the world” and strengthening the position of his state, not a way to end the aggressive war against Ukraine. 

We must never forget that the Chinese dictator agreed to Russian aggression against Ukraine, actively helps to continue it, and has no intention of abandoning his policy. For Xi Jinping, Russia's victory in Ukraine is equal to the defeat of the United States and the entire West, with China opening up prospects for the conquest of Taiwan. Even through military occupation.    

The July 9-11 NATO summit in Washington, D.C., forced Xi Jinping to make adjustments to this strategy. The summit confirmed the Alliance's growing strength through the restoration of its defense capabilities, integration with Finland and Sweden, and the “irreversibility” of Ukraine's accession to NATO. And, last but not least, by focusing on long-term assistance to Ukraine. 

NATO's strong words and actions 

For Beijing, other points of the final declaration of the Summit — on the Alliance's strategy in confronting Russia and the harsh formulas of policy towards China itself — were also a negative surprise. 

“The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies continue to challenge our interests, security, and values.  The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and the PRC and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order, are a cause for profound concern.”

NATO said that Russia must immediately end the war and withdraw all troops from Ukraine fully and unconditionally. “We will never recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea,” the statement was made in no uncertain terms, to leave no one in doubt about the Alliance's position on how to end the war in Ukraine. 

Taking into account the long-term perspective of confrontation with Moscow, the Alliance will develop “recommendations on NATO's strategic approach to Russia, taking into account the changing security environment” by the next summit in 2025.

And this is already directly related to China, because this year NATO stated: “The PRC has become a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine through its so-called “no limits” partnership and its large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base.  This increases the threat Russia poses to its neighbours and to Euro-Atlantic security.”

We must not let China split the Alliance

Beijing reacted to the decision of the North Atlantic Alliance in two ways. It publicly expressed angry indignation at the West's “unfounded” accusations, as China is pursuing a “peaceful policy” in the “conflict in Ukraine.” Instead, behind the scenes, he was trying to understand the seriousness of the strategy chosen by the West and the possibility of using Zelenskyy's “peace forums” to promote his interests and continue playing with the image of “peacefulness.”

It is worth remembering that in recent months, Beijing has suffered serious setbacks in the international arena. First, it failed in its attempts to split the EU and the US using economic instruments and flirting with the national interests of France and Germany. Second, following America, the EU imposed additional duties on Chinese electric cars and other products. Thirdly, after the European Parliament elections, the EU government became more consolidated and effective, despite attempts by so-called Eurosceptics (pro-Russian and pro-Chinese politicians like Viktor Orban) to split the EU and NATO. 

“We are boosting our shared awareness, enhancing our resilience and preparedness, and protecting against the PRC’s coercive tactics and efforts to divide the Alliance.” This paragraph from the NATO declaration is one that politicians in Beijing have to study with special attention. And, I would add, regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election — Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? Because at this point, American policy will not change one iota. 

Taiwan is a true partner of Ukraine 

The Kuleba and Wang Yi conversation was an exchange of views and clarified the positions of both sides after the NATO summit. It had no practical policy implications, as the decision on how and when to end the war and bring peace to Ukraine is made exclusively by the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian Defense Forces and our government, as well as the United States, the EU and our other allies and partners. 

Before the start of the large-scale war, politicians from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's circle had high hopes for bilateral relations with China, believing that the ideology and way of governing the state of the Chinese Communists was also suitable for Ukraine. This was utter nonsense, given the desire of the vast majority of Ukrainians to join the EU and NATO and Beijing's political goals and the way they are being realized - together with Putin's Russia, on the ruins of a democratic, European Ukraine. 

After February 24, 2022, the biggest supporters of the Chinese Communists in our country should realize that Ukraine's real partner among the two Chinese republics is democratic Taiwan, not the communist PRC. Unfortunately, science is hard to learn, despite the tens of thousands of Ukrainian casualties.