Fear has big eyes: German state elections won’t cut aid to Ukraine

It is also desirable to be familiar with the country’s most recent (last fifty years) political history because, especially in stable democracies, political traditions and the memory of past conflicts play a significant role.

I was reminded of these truths while reading comments on the election results for the parliaments of two federal states, Saxony and Thuringia. The victory of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Thuringia, its second-place finish in Saxony, and the third place of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance in both states have caused a wave of panic about Germany’s future, Berlin’s assistance to Ukraine, and our prospects for EU membership.

In two weeks, elections to the Brandenburg parliament will be held. According to opinion polls, the AfD and the Wagenknecht party are also expected to perform well. Many experts predict radical changes in German politics, turbulence in Europe, and even a “new era” in international politics.

'Sanitary cordon' around Kremlin supporters

Fear has large eyes. Opinion polls predicted the success of the AfD and the Wagenknecht Alliance in the local elections in three East German states (former German Democratic Republic), which were under Soviet occupation until 1990. Earlier this year, support for Alternative for Germany (AfD) grew sharply across the country, reaching 22-23% at its peak. Now, support fluctuates between 16-17%, while for the Wagenknecht party, it is at 6-8%.

While these numbers are significant, they are not high enough to enable pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, and anti-European forces to claim power at the federal level following the parliamentary elections scheduled exactly one year from now.

In opinion polls, the Christian Democrats from the CDU/CSU alliance consistently lead with 30-32%. Barring a major catastrophe, the CDU/CSU is expected to form the new federal government, either with the Greens, Liberals, or Social Democrats — members of the current ruling coalition.

There is no room for pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian, or anti-European forces. On the contrary, a “sanitary cordon” will be established around them, uniting all democratic forces against the threat of the “browns” coming to power. A similar process occurred after World War II when communist parties in Western Europe gained 30 percent or more.

CDU to govern Germany in a year

 Will the AfD form a government in Thuringia (it almost certainly will not in Saxony)? It’s uncertain, as it depends on whether the CDU, which came in second in the election, will be able to form its own coalition. German experts believe this is possible, so we need to watch the process of limiting the influence of pro-Russian forces in yet another country, following Italy, the Netherlands, France, and others.

I am confident that such influences will be curtailed because Europe’s future depends on it.

The decline in AfD support ahead of the June 6-9 European Parliament elections was driven by two main factors: massive street protests by the pro-European segment of society and revelations of Russian funding of prominent AfD politicians. Many shocked AfD supporters from West Germany stopped supporting the party, realizing that attractive slogans concealed troubling facts. For a large part of the residents of East Germany, these facts do not seem to matter.

The reason is the Nazi and Communist legacy of the East that has not been properly addressed and the sense of injustice that East Germans (Ossis) felt from West Germans (Wessis) during the reunification of the country. There is also a strong aversion to migrants, who are continually arriving in Germany - out of 81 million inhabitants, 17 million, or 20% of the population, are migrants.

Tomahawk is back in Germany

After Sunday’s election, Sahra Wagenknecht announced that she was ready to form a government in Saxony and Thuringia with the CDU because they share a program to address issues in education and internal security. She added that the governments of these states should advocate for a change in the course of arms supplies to Ukraine and oppose the deployment of U.S. intermediate-range weapons in Germany.

The “revision” of aid to Ukraine is clear—it serves as a marker for pro-Russian forces in Europe. The formula is: “Show that you are against the supply of weapons to Ukraine, and then you will become our friend.” This formula unites those who support Russia and oppose Ukraine and a united Europe.

The protest against the deployment of U.S. missiles in Germany reveals another goal of pro-Russian forces in the West: to undermine the Euro-Atlantic unity between the United States and the EU, and thereby weaken NATO’s security “roof” over Europe. The roof, the restoration of which is outlined in the resolutions from the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Washington on July 9-11 of this year.

One of the main resolutions is the U.S. decision to deploy SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and experimental hypersonic weapons in Germany starting in 2026. These weapons “have a longer range than what is currently deployed in Europe” (White House statement). This marks a true “new era” in European history.

Good news from Brussels

Moscow angrily responded by threatening to deploy medium- and long-range missiles in the European part of Russia and revise its nuclear weapons policy. However, this was merely a bluster, as Western politicians and military officials, having learned from Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression, increasingly recognize that the Russian “tsar” is naked.

Putin's dream of restoring his empire has unraveled on the frontlines of the war in Ukraine, and the fear of the “red lines” he drew has nearly vanished with the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in Kursk.

Contrary to experts' predictions, the results of the local elections in Germany will have no significant impact on European politics. Europeans have already decided on the direction of European politics in the recent European Parliament elections. Ursula von der Leyen, a strong advocate of Ukraine's integration with the EU, will continue to lead the European Commission for another five years. Recently, she suggested that Latvian representative Valdis Dombrovskis should become the Commission's executive vice president for “enlargement and reconstruction of Ukraine.” Dombrovskis is also a close friend of Ukraine.

For us, this is far more important news than the anticipated success of pro-Russian parties in local elections in the German states. Europe's assistance and the speed of our progress toward EU membership truly depend on the decisions of the European Commission.

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, member of the Ukrainian parliament.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.