Collapse of Assad's regime in Syria marks strategic defeat for Russia — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported the information.

Russia's intervention in the conflict in Syria began in 2015 during mass protests that erupted in 2011 and escalated into a civil war.

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has long viewed the "color revolutions" that ushered in new democratic governments in former Soviet states as a threat to his own regime's stability and security,” ISW analysts noted.

They believe that Putin actively opposes democratic movements that could lead to the overthrow of authoritarian regimes supported by the Kremlin.

“Russia's inability or decision to not reinforce Assad's regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner throughout the world, which will in turn negatively affect Putin's ability to garner support throughout the world for his desired multipolar world,” the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.

According to the Russian agency TASS, a Kremlin source claims that Assad and his family have fled to Moscow, where they were granted asylum. Analysts believe that, despite Putin's success in rescuing Assad, his primary goal of ensuring the stability of the regime in Syria ultimately proved unattainable.

Additionally, Russia is striving to secure its military bases in Syria in line with its strategic interests in the Mediterranean and Red seas. However, the continued existence of these bases may be at risk due to changes in the country's political situation.

Collapse of Assad's regime in Syria

In Syria, a large-scale military operation by opposition forces against government troops continued. The Syrian opposition began a major offensive on the morning of November 27, capturing 56 towns in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces within two days and advancing towards the outskirts of Aleppo.

On Saturday, November 30, Russian aviation carried out airstrikes on Aleppo for the first time since 2016, as Syrian rebels reached the city center. At the same time, Russia promised additional military support to Assad's regime.

On the same day, Reuters reported, citing military sources, that Syrian rebels had captured the town of Maarat al-Numan in Idlib province, thereby taking control of the entire province.

The Russian authorities decided to dismiss the commander of the Russian forces in Syria, Sergey Kisel, amid losses and growing panic among Russian troops.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Russia and Iran bear responsibility for the security situation’s degradation in Syria.

On December 4, the U.S. military carried out a defensive strike against weapons systems in eastern Syria. On December 5, Syrian rebels entered the key central city of Hama, with regime forces withdrawing from the city. The next day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged citizens to avoid traveling to Syria.

As of December 6, Syrian rebels, led by the jihadist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced towards Homs, Syria's third-largest city. Additionally, the U.S.-backed alliance, led by Syrian Kurds, seized Deir ez-Zor, the main city in eastern Syria and a key border crossing with Iraq.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan offered to help Syrian leader Bashar Assad shape the future of Syria, but his proposal was rejected.

On December 7, Syrian opposition forces declared control over the city of Daraa in the southwest of the country. Later, rebels claimed they had entered the capital, Damascus, and announced the fall of dictator Bashar Assad's government. The president allegedly fled the country.

On Sunday, December 8, the Russian Federation began withdrawing its military ships from the Syrian port of Tartus after rebels captured Damascus.

Later, Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Al-Jalali stated that the country needed to conduct free elections to allow its people to choose their leadership.

Bild reported that Assad planned to transfer power to pro-Turkish forces and leave for Russia. Negotiations regarding this transfer took place in Doha, the capital of Qatar.

Russian media reported on the evening of December 8 that Assad, along with his family, had flown to Moscow, where Russia reportedly granted them asylum.

Subsequently, Israeli ground forces openly entered Syria for the first time since the October War of 1973, crossing the demilitarized zone along the border.