Will a major Russian offensive mark invasion anniversary?

Our war is unique: NATO intelligence reported on the date of the invasion four months in advance.

The attack plan was announced twelve days in advance.

The exact attack time was announced two days in advance.

Now one can only imagine what would have happened if Ukrainian troops had deployed defenses and blown up bridges in advance – undoubtedly, with such accurate information, the losses of the Russians would have been many times greater, and they would not have made any breakthroughs or encirclement in the south.

But if a major offensive was being planned now, the information from the Allies would be even more detailed.

“The enemy is preparing for an offensive, but the scale of this offensive encompasses the frontline and the border, and the offensive is not tied to any specific date, they are focused on creating more favorable conditions. The enemy might attack where our defense is less well-equipped, where intelligence and management are poorer, where artillery works less accurately, where the units are weaker and more exhausted”

In fact, the fog of war does not exist in modern war at the strategic level; modern means of radio-electronic and space intelligence reveal all plans and see all the movements of military groups. Therefore, nothing unexpected and unpredictable will be carried out by Russia on the frontline even on the invasion anniversary.

Russia has changed its strategy, and instead of intending to destroy Ukraine with one powerful blow, it is now trying to create pressure and gain advantages along the whole frontline. That is, more soldiers are being mobilized, and more drones, shells, and missiles are being produced. 

It does mean that the enemy is preparing for an offensive, but the scale of this offensive encompasses the frontline and the border, and the offensive is not tied to any specific date, they are focused on creating more favorable conditions. The enemy might attack where our defense is less well-equipped, where intelligence and management are poorer, where artillery works less accurately, where the units are weaker and more exhausted. The nature of combat operations in the second year of the war is changing, large-scale operations and breakthroughs must be prevented by a sharp decrease in the enemy's combat capability in certain front areas.

But we can see the maneuvers of the Russian troops as clearly as a year ago, so there will be nothing unexpected.

Source

About the author: Yuriy Butusov, journalist, AFU officer.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.