Why Ukraine will not retake Crimea in battles

Until February 24, 2022, there were separate special sanctions that were introduced against Russia for the annexation of the Crimean peninsula. And these sanctions did not have a critical impact on the Russian Federation.  Because the sanctions were not large-scale due to the hybridity of the annexation itself:

• Russian troops took control of the peninsula;

• there were strong anti-Maidan and pro-Russian sentiments among the residents;

• there were no battles for the peninsula;

• there was an illegal referendum on March 16, 2014;

• Turchynov's order of March 23-24, 2014 on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Crimea.

After the start of a full-scale war, new international legal circumstances arose.  And Crimean history lost its hybrid uniqueness, becoming part of Russia's undisguised capture of Ukrainian regions for the purpose of annexation. The resolution of the UN General Assembly dated March 2, 2022 states that Russia must withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991.

"That is why it is impossible to end the war with the partial lifting of sanctions until Russia withdraws its troops from the territory of Crimea".

While Putin rules Russia, the war will not end.  Only the new leadership of the Russian Federation will be forced to end the war in order to keep the country from sliding into a deep systemic crisis.

The end of the war (removal of sanctions) is possible after the fulfillment of the following points concerning Crimea:

• complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the peninsula;

• complete withdrawal of the naval base in Sevastopol;

• relocation to the territory of Russia of all persons who arrived there after February 22, 2014.

Ukraine will nationalize the property of Russian citizens, entrepreneurs, and companies they had in Crimea before and after the annexation.

Also, Ukraine nationalizes the property of citizens and companies from other states, if they purchased it in Crimea when it was under the control of the Russian Federation.

Regarding military scenarios

Ukrainian troops can begin de-occupation of the peninsula.  That is, hostilities in Crimea are a real scenario.  However, the military operations of the Armed Forces will perform a supporting function.  Ukraine will patiently liberate the peninsula under international supervision, not conquer it.

As long as Putin is in power in Russia, the price of a military scenario for Ukraine will be high.  He does not hide that the large-scale missile attacks on the civil infrastructure of Ukraine were "the answer" to the explosion of the Crimean bridge, to the attacks of Ukrainian drones on Sevastopol.  Recently, Putin directly said this during a telephone conversation with Scholz.

Besides, geography is a stubborn thing.  Crimea is more convenient for Russian defense than the steppes of the Zaporizhzhia region.  By the way, Ukrainian troops will have to make great efforts to cut the land corridor from the Russian Federation to Crimea. Currently, the exit of Ukrainian troops to the Sea of ​​Azov in the Melitopol - Berdiansk section is the most important strategic task of the war.  This is not to be missed. In contrast to the confluence of the Siverskyi Donets and Oskol rivers in Kharkiv region and the right-bank part of Kherson region, we should no longer expect the collapse of the Russian front in Zaporizhzhia region.  It will have to be punched with strong blows.

"And the price of the military scenario for Crimea will be even greater for Ukrainian troops"

You can tell a lot of nonsense with millions of views: about the destruction of the Crimean bridge (which is not a priority right now), about missile strikes on Moscow (although we have nothing to hit it with and we are not given such missiles), about the number of parts that Russia will fall into (three quarters of a fairy tale) .

But the current realities do not provide grounds for Ukraine to pay a price for the liberation of Crimea that can be avoided.

Russia itself will be forced to return Crimea.  Although it is not possible to rule out a partial advance of Ukrainian troops with battles on the entire steppe territory of the peninsula.

About the author. Volodymyr Volya, political scientist, foreign relations expert

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.