Why civil war in Russia is inevitable

Folks, I have two pieces of news for you - one bad and one good. The bad one is that, most likely, we’ll not see a total collapse and transformation of the single Russian 'continent' into a mosaic 'archipelago'. Why? This is the topic of a separate conversation. However, there is also a good one - no matter how the current Russian-Ukrainian war ends, and no matter what configuration Russia acquires, a civil war awaits it in the future, which means a reduction of threats to Ukraine. Because if the complete collapse of Russia largely depends on the influence of external factors, then it itself is preparing a civil war right now.

“In the future, a civil war awaits Russia, which means that threats to Ukraine will decrease. If the complete collapse of Russia largely depends on the influence of external factors, then it itself is preparing a civil war right now.”

The transformation of the imperialist war into a civil war is what comrade Vladimir Lenin predicted and promoted back in September-October 1914. In three autumns, his words became reality. Given the weakness of modern Russia compared to the then Russian Empire and the general acceleration of the pace of life, it is reasonable to assume that the current Russian-Ukrainian war will end in a Russian civil war much sooner.

The modern Russian Federation is the heir to a number of states where the state's monopoly on violence was twisted to the maximum. But there were also periods in its history when war and court were in the hands of tens or even hundreds of small power centers. This usually happens during periods of turmoil and civil wars, but what is unique about the current situation is the formation of a similar situation right now, when the Kremlin seems to be stronger than ever. And yes, we are talking about the famous Wagner private military company. 

“In the current conditions, crowds of incompetent and unmotivated soldiers are powerless to radically change the situation at the front. Therefore, to solve the most important military and political tasks in Ukraine, the Wagner mercenaries were involved.”

Formally, the private military companies are not legalized in Russia, and mercenaries are generally punished by the criminal code, but what Vladimir Putin will not do for his "cook" Yevgeny Prigozhin! The collapse of the Russian regular contract army in the war with Ukraine at the end of the summer became obvious even to Moscow. In search of ways to save his power (and even his life), the head of the Kremlin resorted to the most unpopular of all possible steps - to mobilization. However, in the current conditions, crowds of incompetent and unmotivated soldiers are powerless to radically change the situation at the front. Therefore, to solve the most important military and political tasks in Ukraine, the Wagner mercenaries were involved (not only them, but more on that below).

On the eve of the full-scale invasion, the number of the Wagner Group mercenaries did not exceed 6,000 people - enough by African standards, but nothing in Ukrainian realities.  During the war, it was possible to attract another 2,000 volunteers - also, in fact, nothing, although these mercenaries were entrusted with the destruction of the Ukrainian establishment and the blood of the residents of Kyiv region was on their hands. However, the biggest losses were also among them. And in the summer, a prime time came for the PMC - Putin actually ceded part of state sovereignty to Prigozhin, allowing him to bypass all laws and recruit imprisoned criminals for the war.

“As of October, the number of Russian convicts was reduced by 23,000 - although there was neither an amnesty nor a pandemic. No doubt they all went to war for money and promises of pardon. Some of the dead have already been awarded orders of courage. In addition, there are known cases when the inmates signed up for the Wagner Group in exchange for a reduced sentence.”

As of October, the number of Russian convicts was reduced by 23,000 - although, there was neither an amnesty nor a pandemic. No doubt they all went to war for money and promises of pardon. Some of the dead have already been awarded orders of courage. In addition, there are known cases when the inmates signed up for the Wagner Group in exchange for a reduced sentence. Three, or even four tens of thousands of well-armed fighters (up to their own aviation) with extensive experience of bloodshed and low empathy is a very formidable force.

Prigozhin's complete independence from Russian laws is manifested not only in hiring and releasing convicts. He also practices shooting deserters, and on October 13 he recorded the execution of a "traitor" with a sledgehammer and distributed it on the networks. And nothing, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Investigative Committee or the FSB did not even move. One vague statement from the ombudsman and nothing more.

The question of when this entire company will disobey and start organized terror on the territory of Russia has ceased to be theoretical.  One petty robber, convicted back in 2016, went as a Wagner mercenary to the front, from where he deserted on November 24 together with a hand machine gun. And already on December 6 in the Rostov region, he shot three people with it. The next day he was detained. And what is characteristic is that Prigozhin announced that he would investigate whether it was really his soldier. I wonder how the Wagnerites and military investigators will interact in this case? Will this state function be outsourced? More to come. On December 7, 20 mercenaries escaped with weapons from the temporarily occupied Yasynuvata in the Donetsk region, and three of them were already found and shot by Russian soldiers.  And how many such cases are still unknown to us?

“The question of when this entire company will disobey and start organized terror on the territory of Russia has ceased to be theoretical.”

Well, persistent rumors about Wagner founding its own political party do not arise out of nowhere.

In any case, Prigozhin's private army is an established fact of the Russian present and future. And after all the violations and outright crimes, he simply will not be able to pretend that nothing happened. And the new Russian government will not turn a blind eye to the existence of the Wagner PMC either - simply out of an instinct for self-preservation. Already today, Prigozhin is in an acute (with statements to the Investigative Committee about high treason) public conflict with the St. Petersburg governor, and behind the scenes with the governors of the Belgorod and Kursk regions. And what will happen tomorrow, when Putin stops restraining his "cook"? And it is unlikely that Prigozhin is so short-sighted that he does not foresee a future hunt for his head.

And one should not think that the million-strong armed forces or the militia will solve everything - the issue is not so much the number of personnel as the political will of the superiors.  The collapse of the central government always provokes the collapse of the central law enforcement agencies, instead, middle and lower-ranking commanders gain weight.

In general, the phenomenon of "field commanders" is characteristic of all times and peoples, and Russians should not be deceived that they are not in Somalia. Therefore, a small but united and blood-smeared PMC will always be more effective and dangerous than a corps made up of contract workers or, even more so, conscripts and mobilized. The whole question is how exactly Prigozhin will behave after Putin.  And the fact that the new central government will have to fight with him cannot be doubted.

“Wagner is not the only one splinter in the body of future Russia. Prigozhin is just a clone of another sovereign Russian regional ruler. Ramzan Kadyrov long ago acquired the right to his own army, police and high-profile murders of opponents, as well as full extraterritorial immunity.”

But Wagner is not the only one splinter in the body of future Russia. Prigozhin is just a clone of another sovereign Russian regional ruler. Ramzan Kadyrov long ago acquired the right to his own army, police and high-profile murders of opponents, as well as full extraterritorial immunity - Chechen security forces arrest people with impunity throughout Russia, and Russians are allowed to work in Chechnya only in isolated cases. Only one federal base in Khankala is beyond his control. And what is characteristic, all this was a consequence of the Second Chechen War, just as the rise of Prigozhin was a consequence of ours. So it was no accident that both "feudalists" got along perfectly and occupied the niche of "hawks".  And recently they even achieved the resignation of Colonel-General Alexander Lapin. And since Kadyrov is unlikely to want to conquer the whole of Russia, and Prigozhin may agree to the de facto sovereignty of Chechnya, this union is not at risk in the future.  And the fact that there are both military and politicians on the side of this alliance makes it a full-fledged side of the future conflict.

Since the summer, "name" battalions and companies have been formed in half of the Russian regions. Since they are recruited from among compatriots, and provided by the local authorities, later veterans of these formations can form the backbone of the governor's "guards". It is unlikely that the collapse of Russia will take place across regional borders. On the contrary, after the fall of the Putin regime, at least two ("hawks" for war to the last and "doves" for immediate peace) forces will emerge that will claim power throughout the country. And private companies and regional units will become straws thrown into the balance of one big conflict.

Well, at the lowest level, crippled, embittered soldiers, to whom the new government will surely tell that it did not send them there, will massively replenish the ranks of criminal groups. Or, as it happened after Afghanistan, they themselves will join gangs and start terrorizing the population. And skillful field commanders or ambitious governors will begin to attract them to the service, because it will simply be impossible for many to do anything else.

“After the fall of the Putin regime, at least two ("hawks" for war to the last and "doves" for immediate peace) forces will emerge that will claim power throughout the country. And private companies and regional units will become straws thrown into the balance of one big conflict.”

Russia has already gone through all this many times after the fall of empires - in the 1610s, in 1917, and from 1989 to 1993. But there will be a big difference with the last case. Then the civil war ended literally in a month and only in Moscow, and then the suppression of Chechnya began, which allowed the consolidation of the rest of the country. With extensive Western help, Russia managed to hold on. This time the depth of the fall will not be less, but the attitude of the West will be completely different. Now no one will save Russia. As soon as the US can get nuclear weapons under control, the Russians and their problems will be waved away.

The new Russian government will not be elected in free and open elections. It will be forged in the crucible of civil war. And it is more than likely that Russia will forever lose the Northern Caucasus and Southern Siberia, and even the Volga region. This will be the price of the death of the empire and another civil war.

But no one, except the Russians, is to blame for this.

About the author: Serhii Hromenko, journalist, security expert. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.