October 23-30 live war map: grim week for Ukraine amid Russian push through Donetsk region defenses

Despite the fact that the number of combat clashes dropped by 10% to 970 over the week, 60% of them occurred in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove section of the front, which clearly indicates Russia's priorities and objectives. Despite the decrease in the number of battles, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already set a new record for the destruction of Russian troops. And by the end of the October, more than 40,000 Russian troops are expected to be killed and wounded in a month and 700 thousand since the beginning of the war. 

Prospect of losing Kurakhove appears imminent

The breakthrough by Russian forces on the southern Kurakhove front came as a surprise. Within two days, they captured three critical settlements, which could have held back the Russian advance for weeks or even months. Russian forces broke through key routes to Shakhtarsk, Novoukrainka, and Bohoiavlenka, securing these positions and breaching a front line over 20 kilometers long. This rapid advance suggests that neither the main roads nor surrounding areas were adequately fortified. The Russian forces are now pressing forward without consolidating positions, recently capturing Yasna Poliana. Their objective appears to be advancing to the rear of Kurakhove and seizing the Pokrovsk-Velyka Novosilka road intersection. The Ukrainian Defense Forces’ next critical position lies at the crossroads near Andriivka and Kostiantynopil, where the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly rivers could serve as natural defensive barriers in the absence of engineering fortifications.

The Russian advance has also created the potential to encircle Kurakhove and establish a flanking position to launch an offensive toward Velyka Novosilka, a fortified stronghold in southwestern Donetsk that has long impeded Russia’s path to Zaporizhzhia. Despite recent public assurances about the second and third lines of defense in Zaporizhzhia, it appears that key settlements that should currently be holding off Russian forces lack sufficient defenses—a need recognized over a month ago.

Several military analysts have warned of the likely fall of Vuhledar, Selydove, and Toretsk. Though Toretsk remains in Ukrainian hands, Kurakhove now seems close to joining this list. Following the loss of Selydove, Russian forces are redirecting resources to intensify their attacks on Kurakhove, now from both southern and northern fronts. Last week, Russian forces seized Hirnyk, the highest elevation in the Donetsk region. This strategic town, crucial for Ukraine’s defense, was held by only one Special Forces battalion, which could not withstand the assault alone. Currently, Ukrainian troops are holding off Russian advances at Kurakhivka, but additional withdrawals from this sector appear imminent. Meanwhile, Russian forces are pushing toward Novodmytrivka and Novoselydivka, aiming to reach the northern shore of the Vovchansk reservoir and sever Ukrainian retreat routes.

While the Russian advance on Kurakhove from the Maksymilianivka area has stalled, Russian forces are now pressing along the Donetsk-Kurakhove highway, expanding their control west of Pobieda. Kurakhove is under a three-pronged attack, and Ukrainian forces are struggling to establish an effective defense.

Will Ukraine hold Pokrovsk until year-end?

The tenacity with which Ukraine’s Defense Forces hold Kurakhove, and the associated Russian losses, will likely influence the timing of any subsequent Russian advance on Pokrovsk. The recent Russian gains in the Kurakhove sector present worrying implications. Following a month of combat, Russian forces have broken through Selydove’s defenses, entering Ukraine’s southern flank and cutting off key supply lines via Vyshneve. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to withdraw towards Pokrovsk and now control only the city’s northwestern outskirts.

At the same time, Russian forces are seeking to consolidate their position south of Myrnohrad, which remains poorly defended. Ukrainian forces have managed to repel attacks on Pokrovsk from Lysivka and achieved some local successes on the northern edge of Novohrodivka near a mining area.

Chasiv Yar: a gateway to Kostiantynivka

Although Russian forces have not advanced further in Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces have not managed to dislodge the three Russian footholds established last week. The 2.5-kilometer salient along the highway to Kostiantynivka appears particularly worrisome. Russian forces may be exhausted, but Ukrainian forces lack the resources to disrupt this penetration. If Ukraine cannot counter this advance, Chasiv Yar—holding the Russian front in place for over a year—could soon fall.

Kupyansk and Borova fronts

Ukrainian forces managed to stabilize the lines near Terny and Makiivka, maintaining control of the high ground and preventing Russian troops from crossing the Zherebets River. Meanwhile, Russian forces have expanded their control between the Pishchane bridgehead and the Borova road, gaining approximately 1.5 kilometers west of Stelmakhivka over a 4-kilometer stretch. To avoid encirclement, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the area between Stelmakhivka and the already occupied Andriivka.

Despite numerous Russian attacks on Kolisnykivka, the Kupyansk front saw no significant territorial changes this week. However, Russia expanded the gray zone near Kyslivka and is amassing resources for a broader offensive north and south of its Oskil bridgehead—a priority for extending its reach toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Holding this area between Oskil and the Zherebets River is essential to Russia’s regional objectives.

Kursk front stabilizes

Ukrainian Defense Forces have managed to contain the Russian counteroffensive, maintaining their positions. Only Zelenyi Shlyakh changed hands multiple times this week. Ukrainian forces repelled four attacks on Tolstyi Lug and Pokrovsky, though they did not regain control of Novoivanovka. Near Lyubimovka, Ukraine’s 95th Brigade decimated the Russian 155th Airborne Brigade, even reaching the rear of Kadyrov’s units. Territorial stability persists in the northern and eastern sectors.

However, Ukrainian forces’ recent withdrawal from the Glushkovo-Vesoloye bridgehead and a decision to refrain from attacking Glushkovo signal possible strategic recalibration amid shifting priorities.

The maps were created using data from the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff and other verified sources. However, they are approximate and conditionally reflect trends in the war zone.