Upcoming battles will decide which side wins war and ha greater advantage at negotiating table – Liang-Chih Evans Chen

Some analysts claim that Lukashenko and Xi Jinping signed a package of 16 documents that could help circumvent Russian sanctions by channeling Chinese aid to the Russian Federation through Belarus. Do you think China will take such a step against the West?

I think that yes, that's true. The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, just went to Beijing to visit Xi Jinping on March 1, and I think that's a strong signal that Russia, Belarus and China are trying to stick together. I think we can also recall the meetings in Munich, Germany, in mid-February of this year, as well as the meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who emphasized that China cannot provide any military assistance to Russia. If it does, it will face very severe consequences. So I think the US already has some information that China and Belarus, two important strategic allies of Russia, are trying to stick together and get closer to help Moscow attack Ukraine again on the battlefield. So I'm sure that China is certainly still in a position to stand against the US Democratic Alliance. So certainly, I think China is rethinking and reorganizing its policy on this situation.

Let me clarify the situation once again. You believe that Belarus will become a new hub for Chinese aid through Minsk to Moscow, am I right?

Yeah, I think so. 

China presented a so-called 'peace plan' to end the war in Ukraine, and it was approved in Moscow and Belarus, but not in the civilized world. Why did Beijing decide to take the initiative after a year of war? 

I think China is always learning to look at the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. A year ago, just before the war started, Putin went to see Xi in Beijing, and they announced an unlimited partnership. This shows that relations between Moscow and Beijing were very strong. But after the war started, it seems that Moscow cannot do everything very quickly. So I think that China tends to be indecisive about what is happening in Ukraine. I think Beijing is always learning, and at this point, I think it can certainly understand that Moscow cannot control and push too far. So, you know, it would probably be much better to settle the situation to stop the war. Xi Jinping has just announced a peaceful or partial settlement for the two sides, Ukraine and Russia. On the other hand, I think Beijing is still trying to facilitate any assistance to Moscow and also trying to help make progress on the battlefield and also believes that the internal confrontation also requires more assistance from Belarus and all of China, so Beijing and Belarus are trying to stick together and discuss or review any assistance that they can provide to Russia.

If Ukraine wins this war, will negotiations with the Kremlin be necessary at all, and will there be anyone to talk to at all?

This is very interesting. I definitely think that Beijing is calculating everything. If Ukraine wins the war, of course, we will still have to hold maybe a series of negotiations. So, negotiations are still an option for Beijing, and then Beijing can announce its contribution or allocation of funds. China can facilitate a peace agreement between the two sides. I think announcing a deal or a settlement at this point could encourage or initiate an invitation for the two sides to come to the negotiating table, which would be beneficial for Beijing.

And the last question I ask each guest of Spotlight Ukraine is: do you believe that this war can end by the end of 2023?

It's hard to say. For the last probably about two or three months, we haven't seen much progress in the war on either side. So it seems like both sides are in a bit of a dilemma, because they just stay on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. But now spring is coming, so both sides are trying to restart the battle in the coming weeks. We also see that Russia certainly cannot implement the idea or the plan that it has been developing over the last years, and it also needs a lot of help from Belarus or China. Similarly, Ukraine needs a lot of military and economic help from the West. It's hard to say, and I think the outcome will depend on the upcoming battles in the spring. This is very important to decide which side will win the war, or which side will have a much greater advantage at the negotiating table.