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November 27–December 4 live war map: Russian offensive stalls on Pokrovsk-Kurakhove front

Bogdan Bachynskyi
4 December, 2024 Wednesday
15:15

In November, Ukraine gave up a record 725 square kilometers of territory—the largest loss since the positional war started in 2022. Meanwhile, Russian forces took a heavy hit, suffering over 45,000 casualties, with a loss ratio favoring Ukraine at 1 to 5. Whether trading land for lives will pay off in the long run is still unclear, but for now, it’s the only play Ukraine has

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Ukrainian defenders have driven Russian losses to over 45,700 soldiers, destroyed 2,470 vehicles, and wiped out nearly 900 enemy armored units.  

A notable trend during this period is a sharp drop in destroyed artillery systems—fewer than 1,000 cannon systems and just 9 rocket launchers. This doesn’t reflect reduced Ukrainian strike power but indicates a growing shortage of Russian artillery. Their plea for support from the DPRK speaks volumes.  

As before, 65% of the 1,170 battles were concentrated on the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove front and near Velyka Novosilka.

Velyka Novosilka risks losing supply lines  

The Russian advance toward Velyka Novosilka has stalled just outside the village, with defenders holding firm. Unable to break through, the Russian army has shifted to flanking maneuvers.  

To the south, Russian forces have seized large parts of the Mokri Yaly–Shaytanka interfluve and are advancing toward Makarivka and Blahodatne. Their goal is to force Ukrainian troops off the left bank of the Mokri Yaly River to create a wider approach to the village.  

To the north, Russian troops have pushed into Novyi Komar, effectively capturing it. This opens a path to attack Velyka Novosilka from the north. Holding the eastern part of the village under these conditions will be extremely challenging.  

Despite these threats, Ukraine has an opportunity to establish a stable defensive line along the river and secure the western side of the village. The defense of Velyka Novosilka depends heavily on maintaining supply routes. Currently, only the Hulyaipole road remains intact. Russian forces are focusing their efforts on Rivnopil and Novodarivka to sever this critical route. The battles for these areas will determine the fate of Velyka Novosilka.  

The Kurakhove front: bending, not breaking  

The full offensive strength of the Russian Armed Forces has been directed at Kurakhove. While they are making daily progress, let’s be clear — most experts believed Kurakhove would be encircled and fall by early November. Even the boldest predictions didn’t imagine that the Defense Forces would still be holding the lines in Yelyzavetivka, Romanivka, or Hannivka by December. These settlements have been in a semi-encirclement for some time, yet the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to demonstrate incredible heroism.  

On Kurakhove’s southern flank, the Russian offensive has slowed from advancing kilometers per day to mere meters. Russian forces are still attacking Ukrainian villages along the Sukhi Yaly River, pushing from the south via Trudove and from the north through Dalne. Their primary focus is on Uspenivka, where they aim to cut off a significant portion of Ukrainian defenders. Meanwhile, they are also striking Romanivka and Hannivka. Despite this pressure, the Defense Forces continue to counterattack. Frustrated by their limited progress, Russian forces have extended the front along the river, advancing toward Sukhi Yaly and expanding the gray zone in that area.  

To the north of Kurakhove, Russian troops have fully captured Berestky and moved along the reservoir to Stari Terny, where fighting is ongoing. Their goal is to break through Ukrainian defenses and reach the highway behind Kurakhove’s defenders. For now, they have reached a bombed-out dam that will make further advancement extremely difficult. From there, they will likely attempt to move west toward the interfluve of the Vovcha and Solona Rivers. The terrain in this region favors defense, providing hope that the Armed Forces will hold the line for an extended period.  

Meanwhile, the battle for Kurakhove itself continues. Russian forces have made significant progress here, capturing key sites in the city’s central area. This has forced the Defense Forces to retreat to the western part of the city, where they are constructing defenses around the remains of the destroyed thermal power station.  

Russian forces advance south toward Pokrovsk  

Last week, Russian forces launched over 320 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, marking one of their heaviest offensive efforts of the entire fall. However, their gains have been modest, and the offensive appears to be stalling. The northern flank remains intact, with Russian efforts concentrated on forming a southern pincer to encircle Pokrovsk and prepare for a direct assault. Their primary target is the village of Shevchenko, located 3.5 kilometers south of Pokrovsk.  

Over the past week, Russian forces completed the capture of Petrivka, Pustynka, and Zhovte, advancing to within 2 kilometers of Shevchenko. However, taking Shevchenko will not be easy, as it is well-protected by the Solonenka River. Before launching an assault, Russian troops must secure a bridgehead across the river, which requires capturing the area between Novotroitske and Lysivka—a task likely to occupy them throughout December.  

Simultaneously, Russian forces are advancing westward. Over the week, they expanded their control near Chumatske (formerly Pushkine), but their progress has been minimal, and they have not fully captured the village. Their broader objective is to reach the Pokrovsk–Kurakhove highway across an 8-kilometer stretch between Novotroitske and Novoolenivka. If successful, this would complicate logistics for both the Kurakhove front and Velyka Novosilka. Currently, the closest Russian troops are just 3.5 kilometers from the highway, advancing on Novotroitske after capturing Zhovte.  

Russian troops push Ukraine's Armed Forces around Borova  

In the Senkove area, Russian forces have made no significant progress either north or south along the Oskil River. This has slowed their efforts to eliminate both Ukrainian bridgeheads east of the river. However, Russian troops are steadily advancing, gradually forcing Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the bridgehead south of Senkove and pushing toward Borova.  

Over the past week, Russian forces have moved several kilometers southwest of Berestove and are attempting to break through to the northern edge of Lozova. Simultaneously, they are attacking Lozova from the southern flank, employing their usual tactic of pinning the Defense Forces while gradually squeezing them out of their positions.  

In Pershotravneve, the situation remains stable. Despite multiple attempts, Russian forces have been unable to capture Kopanky.  

Kupyansk–Dvorichna: Russian military bridgeheads destroyed  

By the end of the week, Russian forces had not only advanced near Novomlynsk, north of Kupyansk, but also managed to cross the Oskil River downstream from Dvorichna, near the village of Masyutivka. Their decision to ford the river during one of the least favorable seasons—when the water is cold but not yet frozen—suggests an urgent directive to capture Kupyansk by a specific deadline, perhaps even as symbolic as aligning with Trump’s inauguration. This urgency underscores their struggle, as frontal assaults on Kupyansk’s northern outskirts have been decisively repelled by Ukrainian forces.  

Currently, Russian troops are attempting to secure positions on the right bank of the Oskil. Initially, they achieved some success, capturing Ukrainian positions and advancing into Novomlynsk. From their second bridgehead, they attempted to encircle and capture Dvorichna.  

However, soldiers from the 8th Separate Mountain Assault Battalion of the 10th Edelweiss Brigade counterattacked, using tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to storm Russian positions and eliminate the bridgehead near Novomlynsk. Near Masyutivka, Russian forces also failed to establish a foothold, and heavy fighting continues as Ukrainian forces work to drive them out.  

Ukrainian army holds a perimeter defense in Russia's Kursk region  

The situation in Russia’s Kursk region remains tense but under the control of Ukrainian forces. On the eastern front, the Defense Forces continue to repel Russian attacks, often drawing them into fire traps, as demonstrated several times near Plekhovo. This area features large “gray zones,” which allow Ukrainian troops to conduct maneuver warfare effectively.  

The northern flank remains stable, except for minor adjustments northwest of Pogrebki, where Ukrainian forces withdrew near Kremyanoe to straighten the front line and improve defensive efficiency.  

The western flank, however, is the most unstable. Here, Russian forces have captured Dariino, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat south and east of the village. Intense fighting is also ongoing near Novoivanovka, where Russian forces are attempting to penetrate Ukrainian defenses and advance toward Malaya Loknya. Both sides are determined to hold their ground, as control of this area is strategically critical and could significantly impact the Kursk front as a whole.  

 

The maps were created using data from the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff and other open, verified sources. These maps are not entirely accurate and should be viewed as general indicators of combat trends rather than precise depictions of the battlefield.

 

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