Three main conclusions about the liquidation of Prigozhin

Defence Express analyzed the issue.

According to the article, for Putin, not to eliminate Prigozhin meant only to show his weakness and the impunity of any attempts to overthrow his power.

And finally, it was a matter of technology. To shoot down a private jet with a SAM or fighter jet, or to blow it up with a planted bomb, are details that have little impact. As well as the fact that Wagner's Embraer Legacy 600 (number RA-02795) was flying towards Valdai, where Putin's residence is located, meaning that it is quite possible that Prigozhin was lured into a personal meeting with the owner of the Kremlin.

Prigozhin’s elimination as an intensification of the purge

The actions of the Russian leader demonstrate quite clearly that we are talking about a full-fledged autocracy. And this means that there is a certain circle of dissatisfied people, even among his associates, whom any autocratic regime must destroy for the sake of its own security.

At the same time, it triggers an irreversible mechanism, when the larger the purges, the more dissatisfied people become. And in the end, this only leads to a complete degradation of the governance system and a total atmosphere of fear and terror, in which the main factor of survival is submissive loyalty.

"But Russia has existed in this state throughout its history, so we should hardly expect any changes. Moreover, there is a rather strong impression that ordinary Russians consciously and openly support the start of repression, of course, until the forces? come for them. After all, Russians love to write various denunciations, and the Kremlin has long indulged in this Stalinist practice," Defense Express writes.

Elimination of Prigozhin as a catalyst

Kremlin may believe that by eliminating Prigozhin and the entire top leadership of the Wagner group, it has solved all the problems with the former rebels and taught a lesson to all future ones. And although it is very much to be expected that the elimination of a relatively popular figure in Russia, who began to build a political career on the bones of prisoners, will become a certain catalyst for riots and any protest moods, it is unlikely to happen.

Prigozhin's mutiny itself demonstrated that the "march on Moscow" was not implemented due to the failure of its most important part - active actions within the Kremlin itself. It was more than optimistic to expect that Prigozhin could take Moscow with the forces he sent there.

At the same time, after the suppression of the first group of rebels, there is always a pause until the next group of rebels gathers their courage and adjusts their plans to take into account the mistakes of their predecessors.

Elimination of Prigozhin, whom everyone will forget

Kremlin has a rather effective system of information control. And that is why it is quite possible to expect that in a fairly short period of time no one will remember Prigozhin and the Wagner group in Russia. Just as they will not remember Surovikin, who disappeared after Prigozhin's rebellion.

"Thus, despite all expectations, the likelihood of any consequences of the continuation of internal strife between Russians is extremely low, and they will have only short-term effects. And the only alternative is a situation where all of Putin's current henchmen, as Prigozhin illustrated, see their most likely fate and take action solely out of self-preservation," the Defense Express concludes.